As early as 1894, following the death of Alexander III and the ascension of Nicholas II, Wilhelm II began sending Nicholas a series of private letters with an almost obsequious tone.
These "sweet" letters generally fell into three categories:
1. **First**, they aimed to solidify the personal relationship between Nicholas II and Wilhelm II in an attempt to repair the damage done to Russo-German relations due to the non-renewal of the Reinsurance Treaty.
2. **Second**, Wilhelm II expressed his belief that the two should share a "personal autocratic ideology," frequently referring to the idea that "Christian kings and emperors have a divinely bestowed duty to uphold the principle of divine right of kings."
3. **Third**, they repeated the old refrain of attempting to interfere in Russian foreign policy by advising Nicholas to focus on expanding in Asia, defend Europe, and resist the encroachment of the "yellow race."
Nicholas began to sense that if Russia were to challenge Japan's attempt to occupy the Liaodong Peninsula, Germany might become a temporary ally.
However, theory and practice often diverged.
On March 15, Nicholas had the newly appointed Foreign Minister, Count Ramsdorff, meet with German chargé d'affaires in St. Petersburg, Ziljunski, to ascertain Germany's position.
Count Ramsdorff, recommended by Witte, was an experienced diplomat with a long tenure in the Foreign Ministry. However, Nicholas found that Ramsdorff's stance was quite passive and bureaucratic; he saw himself as merely implementing the Tsar's directives. Thus, Ramsdorff's position reflected Nicholas's own.
If Nicholas was uncertain, Ramsdorff would be inactive; if Nicholas was decisive, Ramsdorff would carry out his instructions rigorously.
"His Majesty's government is deeply concerned about the situation in East Asia. Are we to exchange opinions and possibly take joint action with Germany, given our mutual interests there?" Ramsdorff inquired.
After a handshake and a cup of tea, the discussion began.
"From a long-term perspective, Japan's control over the Pescadores, Taiwan, and Port Arthur poses a genuine threat to European commercial interests in the East," Ziljunski said, nodding in agreement.
However, he added vaguely, "The British Commercial Department believes that Japan's control over Taiwan and the Pescadores will stimulate trade in these regions, but since Japanese trade volume is relatively small, the ultimate beneficiaries will be the European powers."
Ramsdorff shook his head at this.
"Are your government's views aligned with those of the cunning Anglosaxons?" he asked, referring to Britain's pro-Japanese stance in the First Sino-Japanese War, which had made Russia wary of Britain.
"Sorry, Count, I can only reveal this much without further instructions from my Foreign Ministry," Ziljunski replied, leaving Ramsdorff to return to Nicholas with a full report.
The German reaction was unexpected for Nicholas, given his historical knowledge of the intervention by the three powers. He wondered if this was a result of a "butterfly effect" or internal German factors.
"Your Majesty, I have made progress with the French," Ramsdorff reported.
According to Ramsdorff, if Japan demanded the cession of Taiwan and the Pescadores as a condition for peace, the French Foreign Ministry would protest this infringement of their interests, which would lead to a warm reception of the Russian proposal by France.
"Just a protest?" Nicholas asked, shaking his head. After all, France had less influence in the Far East compared to Russia.
"France has expended considerable resources and troops to solidify its influence in the Indian Ocean and is currently engaged in the Madagascar expedition. Therefore, the Republic may not have the capacity to manage two colonial ventures simultaneously," Ramsdorff advised.
In February 1895, France had launched a 15,000-strong expeditionary force to Madagascar, initiating the Second Madagascar War to consolidate its control over the island and secure the sea route to the Indian Ocean.
Nicholas was unsure if Russian-French efforts alone would be successful, but he was content to wait for an opportunity.
On March 23, Ziljunski suddenly contacted Ramsdorff.
"We are very concerned about the situation in East Asia and fully agree with Russia's viewpoint. Moreover, we believe there are no conflicts between German and Russian interests in East Asia. Therefore, we are very willing to exchange opinions with Russia and possibly act in concert," he said, showing a newfound eagerness.
Germany's abrupt shift to strongly support Russia's intervention proposal pleased Nicholas but also left him puzzled. He considered several possible reasons for Germany's change of heart:
1. **Fear of Japan's excessive gains in China**, which could lead to an uncontrollable expansion of Japanese influence, endangering German interests in China.
2. **Possibility of drawing closer to Russia** and dampening the increasingly intimate relationship between Russia and France, thus alleviating Germany's two-front dilemma.
3. **Shift in Russian strategic focus to the East**, allowing Germany to benefit from Russian support in Asia while easing German influence in Eastern Europe.
4. **Future German ambitions in China**, such as acquiring a leasehold in Shandong.
These considerations were based on Nicholas's interactions with Wilhelm II, historical hindsight, and his own experiences.
In any case, Germany's willingness to support Nicholas's intervention proposal was enough.
As long as the three powers could force Japan to make concessions, Japan's current strength would not allow it to resist.
Nicholas was confident of this.
By March 25, the preliminary agreement among the three powers had been reached. After confirmation from the ambassadors of both countries, Nicholas decided to convene a special meeting to unify the government's internal opinions.
"Under no circumstances should we rely on Japan's friendship. It will not stop at the China War; it will eventually turn against all of Europe. After occupying the Liaodong Peninsula, Japan will undoubtedly push further northward with its colonization efforts," Nicholas asserted.
Foreign Minister Ramsdorff immediately followed up, indicating that Japan-Russia friendship was unrealistic.
"Moreover, as of March 23, Your Majesty, I have exchanged views with German Ambassador Ziljunski, who is willing to support our intervention proposal."
Ramsdorff, excited, continued after pausing to lick his lips.
In this era, diplomacy was still seen as a prerogative of the monarch, as Wilhelm II declared, "The Foreign Ministry? What? I am the Foreign Ministry!" and "I am the sole ruler of German policy; my kingdom will follow my lead."
Therefore, Nicholas's private dealings with German officials did not surprise the meeting attendees.
"Very well, I agree to further cooperation with Germany. What about France?"
Nicholas, who had already held the deciding cards, remained composed during the first half of the meeting.
"Your Majesty, France consistently supports our diplomatic stance. However, French Foreign Minister Anato hopes that Taiwan and the Pescadores will be included in negotiations when we intervene."
Ramsdorff spoke respectfully, like a servant addressing his master.
"If feasible, we may consider Taiwan," Nicholas said. Personally, he found the French proposal acceptable, as any measure that weakened Japan was welcome, although he wondered about the future of Taiwan under Qing rule.
Nicholas did not know, but he believed that a loss could turn into a gain.
"Since both Germany and France have agreed, Japan will be unable to refuse the intervention of the three powers," Witte commented. "Thus, we will become China's saviors, and China will respect our services, agreeing to transfer a portion of the railway rights peacefully."
Witte's railway plan not only aimed to traverse the northern part of Manchuria but also to build a railway branch extending south from Harbin to Dalian or Port Arthur, linking to the long-coveted ice-free port.
"Diplomacy with China should be handled separately after the three-powers' intervention succeeds," Nicholas, ever cautious, reflected. He had not fully resolved the issues regarding the railway and the Northeast, but the immediate priority was to ensure China's territorial integrity.
"I have decided to intervene in Japan's excessive demands under the Treaty of Shimonoseki. Do you have any objections?"
"No."
"According to Your Majesty's will."
"None whatsoever."
"Yes, Your Majesty."
"Certainly not, Your Majesty."
On April 8, the Far East special meeting concluded, and Nicholas approved Witte's proactive intervention plan.
On April 11, Count Ramsdorff publicly declared to the German and French ambassadors in Russia: "The Russian government has decided to immediately request Japan to refrain from permanently occupying Chinese territory in a friendly manner," and invited Germany and France to join in the joint intervention against Japan.
He also informed the two countries of Russia's plan: "If Japan does not accept this 'friendly' advice, Russia is considering a joint naval special military action with the three powers to cut off Japanese troops' communications with their homeland, isolating them overseas."
On the same day, the belligerent Wilhelm II ordered "one armored cruiser and one cruiser to be dispatched to the East."
On the morning of April 13, French chargé d'affaires Montepelero officially informed Ramsdorff of France's participation in Russia's plan and agreed that the ambassadors of the three powers would "act together" on the day of the Treaty of Shimonoseki's signing in Tokyo.
Thus, the alliance of Russia, Germany, and France was officially formed.