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Chapter 45 - The Situation and Japan's Response

For mainland China, the year of Jiawu is a deeply etched milestone in national memory.

However, for Japan, it marked the beginning of national arrogance, expansion, and hubris.

Before Jiawu, the Japanese public had no ill will towards China and even harbored some degree of friendliness.

At that time, Japanese students learned Chinese characters in elementary school. Every evening, their fathers would teach them Chinese classics like The Great Learning, The Doctrine of the Mean, and The Analects. They were also familiar with the story of Mencius' mother moving three times.

In wealthy households, high-end folding screens depicted "Tang people" and "Tang children" in various games, and several elegant plates were perhaps manufactured in Nanjing.

During festivals celebrating the arrival of summer, the carriages and sedan chairs paraded with figures of Chinese heroes such as Liu Bang, Xiang Yu, Guan Yu, Zhang Fei, Shi Jin, and Lu Zhishen.

In summary, before the Jiawu War, China was perceived by ordinary Japanese as a distant land of "greatness, romance, and heroism."

Yet, the splendor of civilization has no direct correlation with the outcome of wars. Human perception is short-sighted and blind, and momentary triumphs or failures can dramatically alter a nation's international status and image.

Once the Jiawu War broke out, the tea house run by Hiroshi Tsujimura experienced booming business. He had hired a newspaper reader who loudly read various news reports in the tea house daily, ensuring a constant flow of customers.

Initially, the tea house was not very crowded, and there was a degree of anxiety among the patrons. Could this small nation really defeat the massive China?

When discussing the war, a few patrons would appear solemn and rarely mentioned the conflict, only praying fervently for their soldiers' victory.

But when news of victories at the Battle of Toshima, the Battle of Chenghuan, and the Battle of Yashan reached Japan, the patrons were overjoyed, and the tea house saw a significant increase in foot traffic.

The patrons, in their gestures and mannerisms, seemed to believe they were part of the victorious team, their spirits lifted overnight.

After the Battle of the Yellow Sea, it became evident to discerning observers how the war would end.

Tsujimura even invested some of his own money to buy a large map of Northeast Asia for patrons to view, marking the positions of Japanese troops and the locations of battles as reported in the newspapers.

This quickly became a popular "entertainment" for many, as they eagerly discussed the map.

"I believe our Great Japanese Empire's army should land directly here and then advance to Beijing, so His Majesty the Emperor can sit on the Dragon Throne and fulfill Toyotomi Hideyoshi's dream," a middle-aged small merchant declared with a finger pointing at Beijing's location on the map.

"Yes, yes, landing here directly should be enough with just three divisions," another older citizen said enthusiastically, despite his limited knowledge of Chinese characters. He even pointed mistakenly at Chengde, saying, "Send troops to capture this place."

In the tea house, patrons eagerly discussed when the rising sun flag would be planted atop Beijing.

They were filled with ambition, joy, and pride.

Outside the tea house, the streets were bustling with people celebrating Japan's victories, and public gatherings celebrating the Japanese military success were everywhere.

On April 17, following the signing of the Treaty of Shimonoseki, Emperor Meiji decreed that he would soon visit Kyoto. Everyone cheered, and the ministers almost all departed from Tokyo to prepare for the occasion in Kyoto.

Foreign Minister Mutsu Munemitsu, suffering from worsening tuberculosis, took a leave of absence to recuperate in Maiko, Bōshū.

On April 20, due to Mutsu's illness, Deputy Foreign Minister Lin Dong received a sudden visit from the German envoy.

"Deputy Minister Lin, I have received highly important instructions from my government. I will soon be accompanied by envoys from other countries to visit the Foreign Ministry and meet with either the Foreign Minister or the Prime Minister," said the German envoy, his tone stiff, causing Lin Dong to sense an ominous feeling.

"May I ask which countries will be joining?" Lin Dong inquired.

"The names of the countries cannot be disclosed at the moment, but I can tell you they are major powers," the German envoy replied vaguely.

"... Since both Minister Ito and Minister Mutsu are no longer in Tokyo, and the Foreign Minister is currently recuperating, I am not clear on your important matters, but I can host the meeting in their place."

"Very well, then I will come tomorrow with the envoys from the other countries."

With that, the German envoy left, and the perplexed Lin Dong reported the matter to Mutsu Munemitsu.

The sudden event left Mutsu confused as well, and he advised Lin Dong to handle the situation cautiously in his telegram.

The next day, the German envoy informed that the meeting would need to be postponed for another day.

The Foreign Ministry was baffled.

On April 22, the intervention of the three powers finally arrived.

The envoys from Russia, Germany, and France, all of whom had received instructions from their respective governments, came to the Foreign Ministry to meet Deputy Minister Lin.

"According to our government's instructions, regarding the clauses in the treaty between China and Japan about ceding Taiwan and all its affiliated islands, the Penghu Islands, and the Liaodong Peninsula, our government holds an opposing stance," declared the Russian envoy, Count Schitov, taking center stage among the envoys and making a stern statement to the astonished Lin Dong.

The documents from the German and French governments were similar in content to the Russian's.

Furthermore, Count Schitov recounted Tsar Nicholas II's views on the treaty terms.

"Tsar Nicholas II, upon reviewing Japan's terms for peace with China, believes that ceding territory on the mainland is the most difficult issue for China to handle, and the amount of compensation is excessively large. This will pose an obstacle to lasting peace in the Far East. Therefore, as a sign of sincere friendship towards His Majesty the Emperor of Japan, we advise Japan to abandon its claim to Taiwan and all its affiliated islands, the Penghu Islands, and the Liaodong Peninsula."

Count Schitov's unreasonable demands left Lin Dong both shocked and angry.

"Now, your country has decided not to allow Japan to obtain mainland territory. Yet, the Foreign Ministry had previously discussed this matter with you several times. Why was this stance not expressed at that time?"

"I inquired about your true intentions, but Tokyo only responded that the position would become clear in time, without giving a definitive answer."

In response to Lin Dong's questioning, Count Schitov acted as if the matter had never happened and unreasonably justified his stance.

"Since last year, our army and navy have fought bravely on the front lines. Now, you want to nullify a significant part of the treaty that has already been approved by His Majesty the Emperor with just a few words?"

"Tsar Nicholas II sincerely hopes for peace to be restored in the East soon and hopes your country will consider this carefully."

With that, the envoys from the three countries departed from the disordered Japanese Foreign Ministry.

Due to the sudden nature of the situation, Deputy Foreign Minister Lin Dong immediately telegraphed Mutsu Munemitsu, who was recuperating, and Ito Hirobumi, who was in Hiroshima.

By the morning of April 24, with no reply yet received from Mutsu Munemitsu, the meeting in Hiroshima had to proceed ahead of schedule.

At this time, the cabinet ministers remaining in Hiroshima, aside from Ito Hirobumi, were only Army Minister Yamagata Aritomo and Navy Minister Saigo Tsukumoto.

The atmosphere in the meeting had shifted drastically from its previous cheerfulness, with all three men displaying serious expressions.

"In my view, there are only three possible strategies," Ito Hirobumi stated, having contemplated the matter extensively after receiving the telegram.

"Firstly, should we resolutely reject the advice of Russia, Germany, and France, even if this means Japan will face new adversaries? Secondly, should we seek diplomatic support from other great powers and convene an expanded meeting to discuss the handling of the Liaodong Peninsula issue? Thirdly, should we fully accept the three countries' advice and return the Liaodong Peninsula to China as a gesture of goodwill?"

"Russia is the most deceitful. They remained silent before but now demand that we relinquish the fruits of our soldiers' blood and sacrifice. This is utterly unreasonable!"

Yamagata Aritomo expressed his indignation by attacking Russia.

At that time, Japan referred to Russia as "ロシア." meaning "dew" which evaporates instantly when exposed to the sun , reflecting the sentiment that Russia's influence would quickly dissipate.

"Do we truly have the confidence to resist these countries and start a new conflict?"

"...The elite units of the Imperial Japanese Army have already been deployed to the Liaodong Peninsula. Additionally, our troops and supplies have been exhausted from prolonged combat since last year."

"Furthermore, our Combined Fleet has been dispatched to the Pescadores Islands, leaving the homeland vulnerable."

In response to Itō Hirobumi's inquiry, both the Army and Navy ministers appeared troubled.

"In that case, it's simply not possible at this time."

"I've heard that Russia has ordered all its ships docked in our ports to be ready to set sail within 24 hours. Additionally, they have stationed several ships near Kobe and Yantai as a show of force. German and French warships have also moved into the Yellow Sea."

"In my opinion, we are currently unable to contend with the combined naval forces of the three nations. Even against Russia's fleet alone, we cannot be entirely confident of success. Therefore, it is crucial not to alienate any other countries and risk creating new enemies. This would not be a wise strategy at this time."

After summarizing the movements of the Army and Navy, Ito Hirobumi said:

"The third plan, while demonstrating a certain degree of tolerance, risks appearing excessively weak. If such a change were made public, what kind of intense reactions might we expect from our Army and Navy personnel? How disappointed might our people be? Even if it could alleviate external troubles, how will we address the internal unrest?"

Yamagata Aritomo also found the third plan unacceptable.

After lengthy discussion, the group was unable to propose a better solution and decided to proceed with the second plan—holding an international conference to address the issue.

Following the imperial conference, Ito Hirobumi left Hiroshima that night and arrived in Maiko early on the 25th.

Ito Hirobumi presented the decisions from the imperial conference to Mutsu Munemitsu and sought his opinion.

At this time, Finance Minister Matsukata Masayoshi and Interior Minister Nomura Yasu also arrived in Maiko from Kyoto. They joined Ito Hirobumi by Mutsu Munemitsu's bedside to discuss strategies once more.

"Our government is now in a precarious position. Regardless of the risks, we must demonstrate a firm commitment to maintaining the status quo. We should initially reject the suggestions of Russia, Germany, and France, observe their subsequent actions, and once we have thoroughly understood their true intentions, we can make significant diplomatic adjustments."

Mutsu Munemitsu's stance was consistent with what he had previously conveyed to Ito Hirobumi via telegram. He could not accept the idea of Japan relinquishing its hold on Taiwan, the Pescadores Islands, and the Liaodong Peninsula.

"At this moment, without a thorough examination of the consequences, to rashly reject the advice of the three great powers would be imprudent. Furthermore, Russia's series of actions since last year have clearly demonstrated its real intentions. To provoke it now would only provide a convenient pretext for further aggression. It is highly dangerous, and we are at a critical juncture where a crisis could erupt at any moment, leaving no room for significant diplomatic adjustments."

Matsukata Masayoshi and Nomura Yasu supported Ito Hirobumi's view.

Mutsu Munemitsu, after reflecting on the argument, acknowledged its validity and withdrew his previous stance but opposed the idea of holding an international conference.

"If we convene an international conference, besides Russia, Germany, and France, other European and American powers are likely to join. It is uncertain whether these five or six great powers will agree to participate. Even if they do, selecting a venue and holding the conference will take considerable time, whereas the deadline for exchanging the ratification of the Treaty of Shimonoseki is imminent. Prolonged negotiations would only complicate the situation further."

Due to his tuberculosis, Mutsu Munemitsu paused to cough lightly before continuing.

"Moreover, in international conferences, discussions on such issues are likely to be driven by each nation's interests. The scope of the discussion might expand beyond Taiwan, the Pescadores, and Liaodong to include various other topics, with each country making numerous demands. This could potentially jeopardize the entire Treaty of Shimonoseki and invite further interference from European powers, which is not a wise course of action."

Ito Hirobumi, along with Matsukata and Nomura, found Mutsu Munemitsu's points to be reasonable.

But how should this urgent issue be addressed?

According to the decisions made at the imperial conference in Hiroshima, no new enemies should be added under the current circumstances.

Thus, after much deliberation, the four concluded that Japan must separate the issues of intervention by Russia, Germany, and France from the negotiations with China. Prolonged negotiations with the three powers could provide China an opportunity to refuse to ratify the treaty, rendering the Treaty of Shimonoseki a mere piece of paper.

Therefore, the final conclusion was to strive to keep the issues of "intervention by the three powers" and "Sino-Japanese negotiations" distinctly separate and not allow them to be interlinked.

In brief, even if Japan must make significant concessions to the three powers, it must not retreat a single step regarding China.

That night, Interior Minister Nomura Yasu immediately left Maiko for Hiroshima to report the Maiko conference's resolutions to Emperor Meiji, who approved them.

At the same time, Mutsu Munemitsu issued instructions to Japanese ambassadors in Russia, Germany, France, Britain, the United States, and Italy, intending to employ a strategy of diplomatic maneuvering.

Meanwhile, Nicholas was not idle either.