Date: October 9, 2024
Time: 09:00 AM
Location: The Langham Hotel, London
Johan Lim, en route from Johannesburg to Kuala Lumpur, has a brief stopover in London. He checks into The Langham Hotel in downtown London for a two-night stay. Johan is in town for a quick meeting with the Europe Petronas Management at their office, but he has another, more intriguing appointment on his agenda.
Michael Carter, Johan's old university friend and an investigative journalist, has introduced Johan to Dr. Emily Hughes, a renowned digital researcher from Cambridge University. Emily specializes in the digitization of society and the ethical implications of AI. Michael has spoken highly of her insights, piquing Johan's curiosity. He eagerly anticipates their meeting, hoping to uncover more mysteries of AI that Michael hinted at.
Time: 01:30 PM
Location: The Wolseley Cafe, London
Johan arrives at The Wolseley, an elegant cafe in downtown London. The place is bustling with activity, its classic decor and vibrant atmosphere providing a perfect setting for their meeting. Johan orders a coffee and takes a seat by the window, glancing occasionally at the entrance.
As he waits, Johan reflects on his recent discussions about AI, feeling both excitement and trepidation about the conversation ahead. Emily Hughes is said to possess profound knowledge about AI's potential and its darker sides. Johan is eager to delve deeper into these aspects, especially considering the ethical dilemmas and societal impacts he has been pondering.
A few moments later, the door opens, and a woman in her mid-thirties steps in. She has a confident demeanor, her attire professional yet stylish. Johan recognizes her from the photos Michael had sent him. Emily scans the room, her eyes meeting Johan's. She smiles and makes her way over.
"Johan, I presume?" she says, extending her hand.
"Yes, Dr. Hughes. It's a pleasure to finally meet you," Johan replies, shaking her hand warmly.
"Please, call me Emily," she says, taking a seat across from him.
They exchange pleasantries and settle into their seats. Johan can feel the anticipation building. He knows this meeting holds the potential to shed light on the intricate and often obscure world of AI.
As Emily begins to speak, Johan leans in, ready to absorb every word. The mysteries of AI are about to unfold, and Johan is prepared to delve into the unknown.
Emily takes a sip of her tea, her eyes focused as she begins to share her insights. "Computer programs can calculate our intelligence, blood pressure, and heart rate," she starts, her voice calm and steady. "But can computers calculate our future?"
Johan nods, intrigued. "That's a big question. How do you even begin to approach it?"
"The digital revolution opens up new possibilities," Emily continues. "Almost everything we do is recorded and stored. But do our digital footprints truly represent who we are? And if they do, can they be used to predict our future?"
"Big Data, right?" Johan interjects. "I've read a bit about it. The sheer volume of data we're generating is staggering."
"Exactly," Emily agrees. "In 2013 alone, we produced more data than in the entire history of mankind—almost 4.5 billion terabytes. Since then, we've been producing an additional 2.5 million terabytes every day. With our smartphones, we constantly generate data about ourselves and our environment."
Johan leans forward, captivated. "So, all this data... what does it mean for us?"
"The sensors and cameras in our smartphones, vehicles, and computers record where we are and what we do. This data explosion changes the way we live our lives," Emily explains. "Text, photographs, sounds, even odors—everything can now be translated into numbers. So, have our whole lives become computable?"
"That's a bit unsettling," Johan remarks. "But also fascinating. How does this data get used?"
"Scientists search for patterns in the data we produce to calculate the future from the past. This is called Predictive Analytics," Emily says, her eyes gleaming with enthusiasm. "Can they tell our personal future by looking at our data?"
Johan raises an eyebrow. "Can they?"
Emily smiles. "Let me tell you about an experiment. Two specialists in Predictive Analytics, computer experts from the German Fraunhofer Institute and Bonn University, set up a special experiment. For two months, two volunteers allowed these total strangers full access to their smartphone data. A special app transmitted all their data to the scientists."
Johan's eyes widen. "That's quite a leap of faith. What did they hope to achieve?"
"The scientists, Georg Fuchs and Alexander Marovitz, hoped to construct an accurate model of the volunteers' lives and behavior. They looked for patterns—when and where the volunteers were, who they called regularly, when they sent text messages, to whom," Emily explains. "They even looked at what apps were used and when."
"And did they find anything?" Johan asks, leaning in closer.
"Yes," Emily says, nodding. "They found that our mobile phone behavior, while different for each user, is predictable within certain patterns. Free will explains only a small part of our behavior; the rest is made up of habits that occur in patterns. They could predict future behavior with surprising accuracy."
Johan shakes his head in amazement. "So, in a way, we are more predictable than we like to think."
"Precisely," Emily confirms. "And this is just the beginning. The potential applications of this technology are vast, from healthcare to crime prevention. But there are also significant ethical concerns to consider."
Johan sits back, absorbing the information. "This is incredible, Emily. What you've shared opens up so many possibilities and questions. I can't wait to hear more."
Emily smiles. "There is much more to discuss. But let's take a break for now and enjoy our surroundings. We'll dive into the second part of this conversation soon."
To Be Continued in Chapter 12: Predicting the Future - Part 2