As bad as Joseph's history was, he knew that Aunt Sophie was being overly optimistic. There's a lot more behind it.
On the 19th, the National Constituent Assembly followed suit, leaving Versailles and returning to Paris.
The National Constituent Assembly had just returned to Paris when Mirabeau, a member of the Assembly, made this proposal: "Let the king abdicate and pass the throne to the crown prince. Considering that the Crown Prince is still young, so in accordance with French tradition, a great nobleman of high standing can be made Regent to handle political affairs for him."
Everyone knew who the great nobleman of high standing was that Mirabeau had mentioned. Both of the king's brothers had gone into exile, and considering their attitude toward the revolution, it was naturally impossible for them to assume the position. So, the only candidate is the Duke of Orleans.
This proposal was supported by a number of members of the Assembly, who simply did not believe that the King, who had been forced to return to Paris, would be sincere in his support for constitutional government. They felt that keeping such a man on the throne would bring all kinds of uncertainty to constitutional government.
For a while, the throne of Louis XVI was in jeopardy, and people could be heard shouting "Long live Louis XVII" in the streets.
It was said that the Duke of Orleans had been waiting for this day for a long time, but things took a sudden turn for the worse when the Duke of Orleans suddenly accepted the Marquis de La Fayette's proposal to leave France and go to London as ambassador to England.
According to the general idea, the Duke of Orleans could never have left France at this time, for it would have amounted almost to a kind of exile. However, it is said that after a confidential conversation with Lafayette, the Duke of Orleans accepted the request. Then rumors spread that the Duke of Orleans had accepted such a request because he had done something unseemly behind his back and had been discovered by the Marquis de La Fayette. It is said that a certain clerical friend of the Marquis de Condorcet found evidence of some of his less-than-stellar activities and told this to Condorcet, who in turn gave this information to the Marquis de La Fayette. It only was that Lafayette was a thick-skinned man and was unwilling to bring these things out into the open in public, leaving His Royal Highness the Duke in disgrace. But he also believed that His Royal Highness would jeopardize the country by remaining in the country, which is why he forced the Duke to leave France.
There were other rumors, of course, such as that His Royal Highness the Duke was so high-minded that he left France of his own accord, knowing that his position and influence if he were to serve as Regent, might be a distraction to democracy.
Still, Joseph felt that the first rumor, perhaps, contained more truth.
After dissuading the Duke of Orleans, Lafayette then attacked Mirabeau. He used the same tactics to try to get Mirabeau to leave France and go to Constantinople as ambassador to the Ottoman. But Mirabeau stood his ground, and he refused the request. Still, Lafayette dealt Mirabeau a heavy blow by agitating the Assembly to reject Mirabeau's proposal to recommend that members of the Assembly serve as ministers in the government and pass a resolution banning members of the Assembly from serving as ministers and completely blocking Mirabeau's path to part-time ministership.
By this point, Lafayette seemed to be in complete control. There also seems to be only one remaining dilemma before him: finances.
In the beginning, one of the major reasons why the king called for an Estate General was because of the unsolvable financial problems encountered. Today's social situation is completely different from what it was, but the financial problem is still very prominent.
Now that the royal family had left Versailles, some great nobles dependent on the crown fled abroad. The expenses used on them are greatly reduced. If, in earlier years, the royal family's expenses could have been compressed to the extent that they are today, there would be no financial crisis in France. Now, however, the situation was considerably different, and although the royal family's expenses were cut down, a new problem sprang up at once.
Like the problem revealed by the second law of thermodynamics summarized by future generations of Clausius and Kelvin, there is no way in the world to reduce the entropy of a part of the system without increasing the entropy of the whole system. The royal family's expenses were pared down, but other expenses suddenly increased.
First, conservative nobles who are not willing to lose their past positions are staging rebellions everywhere. In order to suppress them, more money is needed. For many years, France has been the boss on the European continent, but a few countries covet France's position.
The Austrian Habsburgs, for example, have always wanted to restore the glory of the so-called "Holy Roman Empire". Though that empire of theirs was neither holy, Roman, nor imperial, and had no honor except to abound in princesses of all kinds.
Although Austria and France "became friends" during the Seven Years' War (which resulted in France losing a lot of money), the war was not as successful as it could have been. (It is particularly interesting to note that before that time, France had had great success in allying with pagan Turkey against devoutly Catholic Habsburgs and with Protestants against Catholic Habsburgs in the Thirty Years' War. However, once they joined forces with the Habsburgs, who were Catholic, they lost. It is evident that God's will was indeed for France to fight Catholicism. Even though the French imprisoned the Pope, allied with pagans to fight Catholics, and Protestants to fight Catholics, we know that we are good children of God.) If France showed a crack, it is feared that the Habsburgs would be happy to take advantage of France while they could.
And the Low Countries, and Prussia and Russia ... What country on the Continent wouldn't want to take advantage of France's problems while they last? It is not to mention a European shit-stirrer to the west - the UK. They don't deserve to be called Mischief John Bull if they don't take the opportunity to pounce and rip a few chunks of flesh off of France.
So, in order to defend itself against these neighbors, France had to overhaul its army. And the French army, well, just as King Louis XVI found the army to be very unreliable, and the Assembly likewise could not trust the French army.
The high-ranking officers in the French army were all aristocrats. They were all related to the nobles who had run away to foreign countries and were ready to serve as a bandwagon party for the Austrian, Prussian, or British armies as if the later Victor Hugo had depicted in his Ninety-Three, that Gauvain, the commander of the Republican Army, was the nephew's grandson of the rebel commander, the Marquis de Lantenac.
In Ninety-Three, Gauvain was very devoted to his ideals and to the revolution. But in reality, who's to say that all those noble officers in the army are really loyal to The Assembly? Who's to say that they won't fall back on the Count of Provence or the Count of Artois once they return with a foreign army?
Some of the impatient assemblymen have even come forward to demand that all the noble officers be replaced with third-estate officers. But this brainless proposal is not even remotely feasible. Because the so-called third estate officers were not only too few in number, but most of the time, they were, at best, lieutenants - in fact, it was very difficult to become a second lieutenant without the word "de" in their name. These men commanding a platoon and a company might be okay. To have them suddenly command a regiment and go to war would be like going to their deaths.
As a matter of fact, even the legislator who proposed the motion himself realized that it was a motion that was too silly to be true. However, the legislators who moved this motion are not fools. When they moved this motion, they knew that it would certainly be negatived. (If they weren't, they wouldn't have made such a motion at all.) Motions like this are proposed just to show the people who support them how loyal they are to the people.
It's a common fault of the electoral system that to gain the electorate's support, one has to be more radical than others, even in future generations. For example, suppose people are concerned about the environment. In that case, they must support shutting down dangerous nuclear power, dismantling coal-fired power that pollutes the air, blowing up hydroelectric power that destroys fish migrations and alters the stresses on the earth's strata, and chopping down wind power that causes infrasound pollution and threatens birds. ... Finally, they must support pure, natural, non-polluting "electricity generated by love".
It still costs money to solve the problem of an unreliable military. First of all, it is necessary to ensure the income of the army. That said, wasn't the reason the king gradually lost control of his army because he was constantly in arrears with their pay? For the Assembly to have real control over the military, then at least it can't starve the military.
The second is to build up a truly loyal military force. Isn't it true that the British Parliament in the west was in control because they had a "parliamentary" army? (The British navy, police, and later the air force were all called the Royal whatever, except for the army, which was not preceded by the word "Royal" because it belonged to Parliament.) The British Army grew out of Cromwell's New Model Army. Today's National Assembly is also very eager to have a new model army of its own.
The closest thing to a "new model army" today is the National Guard. But the National Guard is still just a militia organization. As hard as Lafayette tried, time was limited, and frankly, at least for now, the National Guard was still just a ragtag bunch. Turning this rabble into the "New Model Army" takes time and money.
There were also various old and new treasury bonds, which amounted to as much as four and a half billion livres together. The interest alone is a huge number, and it's all weighing on the National Assembly almost to the point of being breathless.
It's impossible to renege on the debt because it's all borrowed from the richest of those third estate respectable who are today the foundation of this country.
Faced with the predicament, some legislators are already privately debating whether something as politically incorrect as raising taxes is warranted. But no one has really made that point. But Lafayette was in no hurry, for his friend Bishop Talleyrand already had a solution.