Introduction
The referendum held in 2019, in which the people of Bougainville voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence, marked a significant milestone in the island's history. However, the path to actual independence is complex and fraught with challenges. This chapter delves into the current negotiations between Bougainville and Papua New Guinea (PNG), the obstacles they face, and the broader implications for the region.
Current Negotiations and Deadlines
Referendum Outcome and Ratification
The 2019 referendum saw 97.7% of Bougainvilleans vote in favor of independence. However, this outcome must be ratified by the National Parliament of PNG, a process that is currently underway but faces significant uncertainty.
• Era Kone Covenant: The Era Kone Covenant, signed in April, outlines the process for submitting the referendum result to PNG's parliament for ratification. Despite this agreement, the timeline and outcome remain uncertain.
Role of the Independent Moderator
To facilitate these negotiations, a special moderator, former New Zealand Governor-General Sir Jerry Mateparae, has been appointed. His role is to help both parties agree on the terms of the parliamentary vote needed to ratify the referendum outcome.
• Optimism and Challenges: While there is optimism about the mediator's role, the challenges are substantial. The national government's position appears to be hardening, and there is a risk of localized conflict if the parliament rejects independence without offering significant autonomy.
Political Tensions and Leadership Dynamics
PNG's National Government Stance
PNG's Prime Minister James Marape has not committed to independence for Bougainville, instead emphasizing the importance of preserving the union of the country. This stance is driven by fears that Bougainville's secession could encourage other provinces to break away.
• Marape's Commitment: Marape's commitment to the peace process is crucial, but his interpretation of the 2027 deadline as a settlement rather than a guarantee of independence creates tension with Bougainville's leadership.
Bougainville's Leadership and Resolve
Bougainville's President Ishmael Toroama has been steadfast in his commitment to achieving independence by 2027. He has begun drafting a new constitution and has called for PNG's parliament to ratify the referendum result as soon as possible.
• Toroama's Resolve: Toroama's resolve is clear, but the slow pace of consultations and the potential for PNG's parliament to reject independence could test the patience of Bougainvilleans and lead to instability.
Economic Viability and Resource Management
Economic Challenges
An independent Bougainville faces significant economic challenges. The Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) generated only Kina3m (US$805,430) in goods and services tax in 2022 but had expenditures amounting to Kina420m. The reliance on international aid and the potential reopening of the Panguna mine are critical to the island's economic future.
• Panguna Mine: The Panguna mine, closed since 1989, is seen as Bougainville's best economic prospect. However, reopening the mine is fraught with complications, including environmental and social legacy issues.
International Support and Investment
Bougainville is seeking international support and investment to sustain its future as an independent state. Toroama's government has been courting investment from countries like the U.S., Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and China.
• Geopolitical Implications: The involvement of these global powers adds a geopolitical dimension to Bougainville's independence bid. The island's rich resources, including copper, gold, and tuna, make it an attractive proposition in the context of U.S.-China rivalry in the Pacific.
Regional and Global Implications
U.S.-China Rivalry
The potential independence of Bougainville is set against the backdrop of intensifying U.S.-China competition in the Pacific. An independent Bougainville could add a new dimension to this great power competition, with implications for regional security and economic influence.
• Strategic Importance: Bougainville's strategic location and resource wealth make it a significant player in regional geopolitics. The island's future could influence the balance of power in the Pacific and impact the interests of both the U.S. and China.
Conclusion
The journey towards independence for Bougainville is complex and multifaceted. The ongoing negotiations, economic challenges, and geopolitical implications all contribute to a delicate and dynamic situation. As the 2027 deadline approaches, the world watches with interest, aware that the outcome will have far-reaching consequences for Bougainville, PNG, and the broader Pacific region.
Visual Aids and Timeline
• Maps: Show the geographical location of Bougainville and its strategic importance in the Pacific.
• Graphs and Charts: Illustrate the economic data, including revenue and expenditure of the ABG, and the potential economic impact of reopening the Panguna mine.
• Timeline:
• 2019: Referendum held; overwhelming vote in favor of independence.
• 2021: First consultation between PNG and Bougainville after the referendum.
• 2022: Era Kone Covenant signed; mediator appointed.
• 2024: Expected parliamentary vote on Bougainville's independence.
• 2027: Target year for achieving independence or a settlement.
This chapter provides a detailed and up-to-date analysis of the current negotiations, challenges, and implications surrounding Bougainville's bid for independence, setting the stage for a comprehensive understanding of the island's future trajectory.