Since the Treaty of Chanyuan, the annual tribute to the Liao dynasty has included silk fabric as part of the tribute, making the idea of becoming a royal merchant in the silk weaving industry a perennial dilemma.
[The Chanyuan Treaty, signed in 1004 AD, was a significant peace agreement between the Song Dynasty and the Liao Dynasty in China. Established during the reign of Emperor Zhenzong, the treaty aimed to resolve ongoing conflicts between the two powers.]
Under the terms, the Song Dynasty agreed to pay annual tribute to the Liao Dynasty in exchange for peace and stability along their borders. This treaty allowed the Song Dynasty to focus on internal development and cultural growth, while also highlighting the strength of the Liao Dynasty. The Chanyuan Treaty played a crucial role in shaping the political landscape of the time.
The demand for thirty thousand bolts of silk fabric each year is no small amount, and if not broken down into smaller quantities, no single fabric merchant could take on such a task. Even when broken into smaller batches, the numbers the court offers are still large. Moreover, these huge quantities of silk fabric are purchased at prices that are far from high. They are not bought as luxury goods, and the prices are often lower than market rates.
Each year, the palace does buy some rare and luxurious silks and brocades, and these are priced at a premium, which brings some profit. However, compared to the thirty thousand bolts of silk, the volume is small. Becoming a royal merchant does grant certain privileges, so some larger merchants will reserve enough resources to take on the court's orders for the tribute silk, either by selling at low margins or not expecting to make a profit at all, in exchange for using the royal privilege to expand their businesses elsewhere.
The Su family's foundation in this regard is somewhat lacking. While they can take on a small portion of the orders, it would be a considerable challenge if they were to actively pursue these contracts. The Su family already has numerous other businesses to maintain, and once the royal orders are taken, they cannot afford to delay; the products must be delivered on time. To avoid disrupting the balance of their already saturated businesses, the Su family must ensure there is enough supply in advance.
In other words, to meet these demands, the Su family would need to set up new workshops and secure new sources of raw materials. These new ventures do not bring in much profit, and while they might grant certain privileges, the effort spent on setting up these new workshops would strain the Su family's capacity for expansion. Even with privileges, they may lack the strength to grow further.
On the other hand, if they manage to secure some of the tribute silk business and supply high-quality fabrics, the palace will open up a portion of its demand for rare brocades. The profit from this small portion would be much higher. Everyone wants this business, but except for a few well-known silk merchants, anyone else hoping to offer their valuable silk must also take on a portion of the tribute silk, which is low-margin, alongside various bribes and fees to secure deals. Profits in this business are hard to come by; it's really just a way for large merchants with enough resources to secure royal privileges and grow their business further.
In the Bianjing region, there are many large silk merchants, and while Jiangning is also a center for silk weaving, the royal merchant business is mostly handled by a few medium-sized merchants who take on this business. Though their position in the industry is respectable, their status in the fabric trade is no different from the Wu, Xue, and Su families. Occasionally, they may even share some of the orders. But it's not always the medium-sized merchants who take on the tribute silk orders; those who become royal merchants end up as medium-sized players because the pressure from the tribute silk is too great, and the profit margin is low.
To resolve this issue, the best solution is technical improvement. Xu Jinyu can probably sense the effort Su Tan'er has put into this over the years. She has probably made some progress, but now, the problem has arisen.
"If you had been able to further reduce the cost of the tribute silk and improve efficiency a few years ago, you could have taken on the business without much trouble. Of course, after a year or two, there would have been competitors. But the problem now is that since last year, relations between Liao and Jin have become tense. Both are waiting for the war to begin. Once the fighting starts, two tigers will fight, and our country will surely send troops. After that, the tribute silk to the Liao will cease. These thirty thousand bolts of fabric will have to be consumed by ourselves..."
"But if the tribute silk ceases, the royal merchants will only be left with the silk and brocade orders for the palace. The Xue and Wu families are definitely already following up on this. We might be able to beat Xue, but we can't beat Wu. They already have connections in the palace and are well-acquainted with the officials at the Silk Weaving Bureau. I know you've been working on this for a few years, but given the situation now, the chances of success are slim. The biggest problem is with the tribute silk. No matter how good the silk you offer is, the palace's demand won't be high, and without the tribute silk, your investment in new workshops will be drained. But if you don't prepare new workshops and the tribute silk demand comes up again next year, what will we do?"
Xi Junyu was momentarily stunned as he listened. The situation between the Jin and Liao states had grown increasingly tense, and across the country, people were saying that when two tigers fought, one would inevitably be injured. The opportunity for the Wu Dynasty to catch its breath had arrived. Even if the outcome turned out badly, it wouldn't be any worse than the current situation. He hadn't expected Su Tan'er to have this kind of perspective. Was it pessimism or clear-sightedness? Looking back on her past behavior, she had always acted with firmness hidden beneath her soft exterior. He felt a slight tremor in his heart... She was truly admirable.
But even so, Xi Junyu still held the belief that the Wu Dynasty wouldn't get any worse. Improving the loom, taking on a large portion of the annual fabric trade, cutting costs to increase profits—this was the most straightforward and honorable plan. However, such profits wouldn't last long. Usually, secret techniques in dyeing or stitching could last longer, but loom improvements would be widely known in a year or two. Once the methods spread, everyone would adopt them, and profits would quickly diminish. Many times, efforts were made, but they didn't yield the expected results.
He was about to voice his thoughts when suddenly, a sound of clapping came from the shadows of the corridor. Xi Junyu had been so engrossed in the conversation that he hadn't noticed anyone nearby. It was only when Juan'er spoke, surprised, "Young Master, how come you're here?" that he turned.
The figure in the dark was Ning Yi, holding an oiled paper umbrella in one hand and a couple of rustic bundles of wild goods in the other. He had dried rabbits and other items hanging from them. Smiling, he motioned toward the little square where the carriage was parked. "I was waiting to eat, then went to the kitchen for a look. While I was passing by, I remembered there was something in the carriage I forgot to take. Ah, this is from Xiao Chan's village for Master Geng. Just taking it as a small favor, so it doesn't get 'taken' by the servants organizing the cart. I heard voices when I came over."
He smiled and pointed at Su Tan'er. "You're wrong. You're unpatriotic."
Xi Junyu had intended to discuss the matter at hand, but hearing Ning Yi's words first, he frowned. This man was a scholar, after all, and even if his writing was good, he was no different from those who loved to tell stories about how the Wu Dynasty's heroes defeated the barbaric Liao people. Logically speaking, Su Tan'er's argument was sound—it just couldn't be generalized to the business situation.
He turned away, only to see Su Tan'er stifling a laugh. Such a smile was rare in his impression of her, and in that fleeting moment, she seemed to merge with another woman in the background, both of them smiling.
She smiled, tilted her head slightly, and even though her tone was somewhat reproachful, it wasn't a scolding but a playful, natural joke like one would share with a friend. "My lord…"
At the same time, in another part of the city, beneath the heavy rain by the Qinhuai River, a figure knocked on the door of a brightly lit building. When Nie Yunzhu opened the door, she saw Yuan Jiner, drenched from head to toe, clutching her body.
Yuan Jiner had been wearing only a thin cotton sleepwear when she had jumped out of Jinfeng Tower earlier. She had been soaked by the rain on her way here. In the light, her clothes clung to her body, nearly transparent. Of course, in Nie Yunzhu's eyes, this state only made Yuan Jiner appear even more delicate and fragile. The lively girl who was usually full of energy now wore a tired smile. She reached up to wipe the rain from her face, then shook her long hair like water plants, splashing droplets everywhere, and let out a big yawn.
"Ah… Yunzhu, I'm so impressive. I basically… uh, came all the way from Jinfeng Tower like this. Even so… hehe, I'm so sleepy. Yunzhu, where's your room? I'll sleep on the floor, it's fine…"
She yawned again, covering her mouth, then coughed a few times, looking utterly exhausted. Nie Yunzhu was slightly stunned but quickly moved to embrace her. "No, you need to take a hot bath first… Hu Tao, quickly heat up some water."
"Mmm… no bath… the water's hard to drink. I'm almost turning into a steamed bun… Hehe, Yunzhu, you're so warm…"
Yuan Jiner melted into her embrace, her arms wrapped around Nie Yunzhu's neck, her eyes already closed. She mumbled, laughing softly, and then rubbed her face against the collar of Yunzhu's clothes, satisfied as she rested there, about to drift off to sleep. Just then, the sound of footsteps in the heavy rain could be heard: "Miss, miss…"
Kou'er, equally drenched, was carrying a small bundle and had followed after them.
Not long after, Nie Yunzhu looked at Yuan Jiner, who had completely collapsed on her bed, naked and wrapped up in her blanket, already fast asleep. She could more or less guess the whole story...
After hearing this, Su Tan'er was silent for a long while before speaking. "Isn't the tribute silk issue just as difficult for the Xue and Wu families?"
"If there's still another year of tribute silk demand, they'll try to hold on, making some concessions in the market to release some of their share. But once the war breaks out next year or the year after, they'll use the silk and brocade business, along with their royal merchant privileges, to reclaim the market share. But you're making improvements to the looms, you're taking risks, and you've invested too much. If it were a few years ago, I'd support you, but now, it's not so clear-cut. This isn't a business that guarantees huge profits anymore, and it might be better to pull out early," he sighed. "This isn't a mistake in your calculations, but the timing has simply turned against you."
In the past, the royal merchant business wasn't a coveted position because, for truly capable large merchants, it allowed them to grow bigger. But for the Su family or smaller merchants, it became a burden, even a poison. Just when Su Tan'er wanted to make her move, a war was about to break out. What seemed like hope now threatened to turn into a joke as the tribute silk might disappear, and the Xue and Wu families would be fighting for it.
After hearing Xu Jinyu's words, Su Tan'er furrowed her brows and shook her head. "What does Manager Xu think... what will happen after the war?"
"Eh?" Xu Jinyu was momentarily stunned, then said, "After the war..." He paused and suddenly understood what she meant. "You mean..."
"Since my birth, the tribute silk has been delivered every year," Su Tan'er lowered her voice. "Some things may not be glamorous to speak of, but they seem like never-ending affairs. I certainly hope we can win against the Liao. But... we haven't won before. Sixty years ago, the Treaty of Chanyuan; seven years ago, the Black Water Treaty; and now, there's the Jin state. What will happen if we fight? Two tigers fighting to the death would be great, but will that really happen?"
Su Tan'er shook her head. "Everyone says the Liao are barbaric and cruel, the Jin are crude and uncivilized, and that we're the great Tianchao. I... I also enjoy hearing these stories, laughing along when I was young and listening to storytellers in teahouses."
"But to say it's really true... I don't believe it. Everywhere has its wise men, and if we can't beat them, it only means they are stronger. Strength means recognition..."
"Those who are willing to admit defeat are the ones who can win it back. I'm a merchant, defeat means defeat, and money lost is lost. Making excuses is of no use. Excuses are for others, so we can know how they might act, and we can prepare. If we admit our own weaknesses, we can see ourselves clearly. Manager Xu, seven years ago, the Liao forced us to sign the Black Water Treaty, and now the Jin are challenging the Liao. When they fight, will they care if our country is just watching?"
"I now walk around teahouses and wine shops, hearing scholars discussing how the Tang Dynasty will reap the benefits of the conflict between the Liao and Jin, how barbaric and foolish they are, and how we will defeat them. As a woman, if I were in Liao or Jin, I wouldn't be so short-sighted. Our dynasty has been oppressed for nearly a hundred years. Can we really say we've been oppressed for so long by a group of foolish and barbaric people? Maybe it's because these scholars keep telling these stories that our dynasty has weakened..."
Her expression darkened: "If war really breaks out, the best outcome is that both Liao and Jin lose. Then, we wouldn't have to pay tribute anymore. At that time, the improved looms might still have some use. But there are other possibilities. What if the Liao win? Then our tribute will increase. If the Jin win, do they expect to stop demanding tribute? No such luck. I heard that the friction between Liao and Jin is partly because the Jin want to do business with us. It's also possible that both sides will reach a ceasefire, and our dynasty will end up paying tribute to both Liao and Jin. But there's no way they'll pay tribute to us."
"I also hope we can win. If one day the army is called into action, the government will definitely come to collect funds. My grandfather and father are prepared. But if we can't win, then what should we do...?"