In November 1916, Germany received yet another piece of good news. The 8th Army, with the support of the Pacific Fleet, successfully captured Singapore and swept through the entire Straits Settlements. It was anticipated that the entirety of the colonies in the region would soon fall into German hands.
Almost simultaneously, the 4th Army, escorted by the Indian Ocean Fleet, successfully landed on Australia's western shores and began advancing eastward along the coastline. Although Britain had mobilized considerable forces in Australia, and the Australian troops were notably more formidable than the British Indian Army, they stood little chance of halting the German offensive.
Once the 8th Army joined the campaign in Australia, British and Australian forces were expected to face swift defeat. However, a major challenge for the German military lay in Australia's vast expanse—over twice the size of India. Conquering the entirety of Australia would require significant time. Fortunately, Australia's relatively sparse population meant that British efforts to organize defenses there would be limited.
By the first half of the following year, it was projected that Germany would secure all of Australia without issue. Only then would German military operations temporarily pause.
Despite these developments, Qin Tian's focus was not on the resource-rich colony of Australia but rather on Germany's immediate neighbor and ally, Austria-Hungary. Although the Austro-Hungarian Empire had not significantly contributed to the last world war, it had nonetheless managed to divert some of Germany's adversaries, making German victories—particularly on land—less challenging.
During the war, Germany and Austria-Hungary had been steadfast allies, but after the conflict, diverging national interests caused their alliance to fray. Germany began systematically undermining Austria-Hungary, transforming the two nations from allies into rivals, and eventually potential adversaries.
While Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria remained in power, the alliance between the two nations endured despite its challenges. However, should Crown Prince Karl—known for his anti-German stance—ascend the throne, the alliance would inevitably collapse.
At 86 years old, Emperor Franz Joseph I was nearing the end of his life, and Qin Tian knew his passing was imminent. In another timeline, the emperor had died this very month. Thus, Qin Tian instructed the intelligence services to intensify surveillance on Austria-Hungary, unsure whether Franz Joseph I would pass away on November 18 in this timeline.
On November 15, Qin Tian convened a Privy Council meeting. The central issue was the impact of Franz Joseph I's potential death on German-Austro-Hungarian relations and the timeline required to neutralize Austria-Hungary should Germany resort to military action.
Although Austria-Hungary was still officially an ally, its proximity and potential hostility posed a considerable threat to Germany, especially under an anti-German ruler like Crown Prince Karl. If Karl were to align Austria-Hungary with the United States in opposition to Germany, it would significantly worsen Germany's strategic situation. Qin Tian was determined to preemptively neutralize this threat by striking Austria-Hungary first.
In Qin Tian's plan, a defeated Austria-Hungary would see Germany annex Austria, as Austrians were ethnically and culturally Germanic. Before the Austro-Prussian War, Austria had been one of the most powerful German states, and incorporating Austria into the German Empire would be relatively seamless. This would strengthen Germany's power substantially. Furthermore, regions dominated by other Germanic peoples would also be annexed, while other territories would be granted independence under German protection. In times of war, these states would be required to support Germany, ensuring its strategic interests were safeguarded.
"Your Majesty, esteemed ministers," reported Admiral Bremen, Director of Imperial Intelligence, "according to our latest intelligence, Emperor Franz Joseph I will not hold on much longer. Although Austria-Hungary has tightly sealed any information regarding the emperor's health, we've uncovered enough clues through other channels to conclude that he is unlikely to survive past the 20th of this month."
The ministers of Germany's military and civil administration frowned in unison, fully aware of the implications of Franz Joseph I's death on German-Austro-Hungarian relations—potentially leading to outright war.
"Your Majesty," said Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg, "if the emperor's passing is imminent, we must prepare in advance."
"Indeed, Your Majesty," added Foreign Minister Jagow. "Crown Prince Karl has always been hostile to our empire. His dissatisfaction with the results of the previous world war's negotiations, coupled with American overtures and financial aid to Austria-Hungary, makes it clear that once Franz Joseph I passes, Austria-Hungary will likely sever its alliance with us."
Qin Tian nodded, acknowledging the gravity of the situation. Everyone understood that the emperor's death would mark a turning point in bilateral relations, with the two nations shifting from allies to adversaries.
"Gentlemen," Qin Tian asked, "if Austria-Hungary exits the alliance and becomes an enemy of our empire, what should our response be?"
Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg and Foreign Minister Jagow remained silent, while Army Minister and Chief of the General Staff, Field Marshal Falkenhayn, exchanged glances with Navy Minister Reinhard Scheer and Air Force Commander Seekt.
Field Marshal Falkenhayn broke the silence: "Your Majesty, if Austria-Hungary abandons the alliance and sides with the United States, we must decisively eliminate them to nullify the threat they pose to our empire."