Year 284 AC
Ser Colton Holt returned from the King's Landing after the coronation ceremony of the king Robert Baratheon, First of his name, King of Andals and the Rhyonar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm. Ser Holt would never have predicted that what his young lord said came true. After they won the battle of trident, everything else gone swimmingly. More astonishing was that Lord Tywin Lannister, Warden of the West, once close confidant of king Aerys II Targaryen betrayed him. He was full of questions that he wanted his young lord to answer.
When Ser Colton finished his duties after returning from King's Landing he searched for the young lord. He found him at the training ground doing exercises. Ser Colton Holt said to the young lord "Young lord, it is good to see you diligently following your studies as well as training. The war went as you predicted. Once we won at the trident next parts of the campaign were largely easy. How did you anticipate it, my lord?"
Rickard took a while to complete his exercises then sat upon a bench at the training ground and replied "I was already taught important houses and their allegiance. Think about it. Why would the hand of king, who was king's friend, resigns, just after that very same king deprived him of his firstborn citing illness. It makes more sense that the lion and the dragon had a falling out. This makes The North, The Riverlands, The Vale, and The Stormlands on one side and Dorn, Reach and Targaryens themselves on the other. Even with the massive army of the Tyrell's we had a decided advantage if we can win so that lion can choose a side which most benefits him. "
Bewildered, asked Ser Holt " Why would you think Lord Tywin would change sides? "
" Lord Tywin resigned his position as the Hand and the King accepted it. It means that the Lannisters have no say in the King's Landing. Tell me, if you were a de facto ruler of a most prosperous city for about 20 years and it was taken away; how would you feel? Wouldn't you want vengeance against the person responsible? Wouldn't like to see the person responsible suffer? " Rickard answered.
" I see, but what of a knight's oath? Lord Tywin Lannister swore fealty to the Mad King. Why would he break that oath? " Ser Holt enquired.
" From Lord Tywin's point of view, once he new that we could win, it was a matter of keeping his House's prestige that he didn't end up on losing side. As for his oath, He is also the Lord of the Westerlands. As long what he does is in the interest of Westerlands he isn't breaking his oath. Tell me, what did he got after he helped our King onto the throne?" Rickard asked.
Ser Holt replied "Lord Tywin's daughter is betrothed to the new king."
"Tell me Ser Holt, what else would be in the best interest of the Westerlands beside being the father-in-law of the King?" Rickard asked.
"Other than being on the small council I can't think of anything else." Said Ser Holt.