"Mr. President, although the current situation is exceedingly unfavorable, we can still continue to fight. We have over a million troops remaining, and our British allies still possess several hundred thousand. If we persist, a miracle may yet occur," Marshal Joffre asserted without hesitation.
President Poincaré nodded and turned to the others.
"Marshal, if we press on, do we have any real chance of victory? The French Republic has already suffered grievously in this conflict," Prime Minister René Viviani inquired.
It was evident that, in light of the substantial losses and the dim prospects of success, the French government's resolve was wavering. If defeat were indeed imminent, why continue to fight? Such a course could only lead to greater sacrifices and more lives lost.
"No, Prime Minister. While our chances of victory may be slim, there remains a possibility. Should we surrender to the Germans, they will undoubtedly inflict severe punishment upon us. We would lose vast territories and bear the burden of crippling reparations. France would sink into despair, with no hope of resurgence," Joffre replied firmly.
The expressions of the assembled dignitaries darkened, yet they could not deny the truth of Joffre's words. From the intelligence they had gathered, the Russians had paid a steep price to withdraw from the war. Surrendering would be tantamount to delivering themselves into the Germans' merciless grasp, who would not hesitate to impose even harsher terms than they had on Russia.
"Oh, how fortunate it would be if the rules of war were still governed by those of over two centuries past!" Minister of War Alexandre Millerand lamented.
The room fell silent for a moment before they exchanged wry smiles, understanding Millerand's sentiment. Yet, such a scenario was clearly impossible. Although numerous wars had erupted in Europe over two hundred years ago, none had led to the utter destruction or dismemberment of a nation. Defeat then required only an admission of fault, an apology, and perhaps some modest concessions—nothing like the complete annihilation that loomed now.
This reflection undeniably revealed the profound lack of confidence the French harbored regarding this war.
"Minister of Foreign Affairs, what sort of harsh conditions might we expect if we were to surrender?" President Poincaré asked.
"Mr. President, based on the Germans' conduct in this conflict, they would likely demand a brutal reckoning. First, we would likely be forced to cede territories in northern France, including Paris itself. Second, regarding reparations, the Germans are known for their insatiable demands. Given the wealth of the Republic, they might well require reparations amounting to twenty billion marks or even more," Foreign Minister Théophile Delcassé speculated, though he acknowledged this was merely his personal estimation.
Even this conjecture rendered the faces of President Poincaré and his colleagues grim. If they acquiesced to such terms, France would indeed be rendered a nation in name only. Northern France, rich in resources and industrial strength, if ceded to Germany, would reduce France to a second-tier power in Europe. Moreover, Paris, the heart and symbol of the French spirit, if relinquished, would signify a profound loss of identity. The prospect of twenty billion marks in reparations would be an immense burden. Although France was wealthy, with overseas loans totaling five hundred billion francs—approximately four hundred billion marks—such sums could not be easily mobilized. Furthermore, twenty billion marks might merely be a conservative estimate; the Germans could very well impose even more onerous conditions. Such demands were unacceptable for France.
"Gentlemen, if the Germans truly proposed such conditions, or even harsher, could we accept them?" President Poincaré inquired.
The French officials shook their heads vigorously. To accept such terms would make them eternal pariahs, reviled by all French citizens.
"Mr. President, we absolutely cannot acquiesce to the Germans' draconian demands, nor can we surrender. If we continue to fight, we may yet find a path to victory," Joffre insisted.
"Oh?" The attention of Poincaré and the others shifted to Joffre. If a victory—or even a stalemate—were possible, it would be a tremendous boon for France. They could at least avoid incurring excessive costs.
"Mr. President, didn't the British request our navy's assistance? If the navies of Britain, France, and Italy unite to defeat the German fleet, the balance of power could shift. As long as we can withstand the German assaults on French soil, the tide of victory may eventually turn in our favor," Joffre proposed.
"The navy? Minister of the Navy, do we have the capability to triumph over the Germans?" President Poincaré asked.
"Mr. President, the Republic's navy has already set sail for Britain. According to our plans, we will cooperate with the British fleet. The ships purchased by Britain from the United States are expected to return next month. At that point, we will join forces against Germany. Whether we can defeat them remains uncertain, but from our comparative strengths, the disparity is not insurmountable. With a bit of luck, victory is indeed within reach," Minister of the Navy Victor Gallois responded.
"Given this, Mr. President, I believe we can continue our fight. At the very least, we can buy some time. After the decisive naval confrontation with the Germans, we can reassess our situation. If the navy succeeds, we can carry on with the war until we achieve victory. If, however, our navy fails, then I think there is little point in persisting," Prime Minister René Viviani suggested.
President Poincaré nodded, "If there are no further objections, let it be so. May God bless our navy and grant us victory over the Germans!"