On the afternoon of Sunday, June 28, 1914, Emperor Wilhelm II of Germany and Crown Prince QinTian were aboard a yacht on the Kiel fjord, admiring the surrounding scenery. Accompanying them was Admiral Count Tirpitz, the Minister of the Navy.
This excursion had a significant purpose: to inspect the recently widened Kiel Canal. The canal's expansion enabled naval warships stationed in Kiel to travel directly to Wilhelm's Port, eliminating the need to circumnavigate the Jutland Peninsula. This not only saved considerable time but also ensured the fleet's safety, as such a detour might expose them to potential assaults from the British Royal Navy.
"Your Majesty, the Kiel Canal has been fully widened. We need no longer worry about the separate deployment of our fleet," Admiral Tirpitz declared with a smile.
"Indeed, the Imperial Navy is growing increasingly formidable, and I am most pleased. Our chances of defeating the British are now significantly heightened," Wilhelm II responded, visibly content with the burgeoning strength of his navy, as he envisioned the gradual realization of his ambitions.
"Your Majesty, the current scale of our navy owes much to the Crown Prince's efforts! Without his support and the design of these warships, our navy would not be nearly as powerful," Admiral Tirpitz praised.
"Your Excellency is too kind. Contributing to the empire's strength is merely my duty," QinTian humbly replied.
At that moment, a staff officer approached the yacht's deck.
"Your Majesty, urgent news from the Austro-Hungarian Empire," the officer announced.
"Oh? What has occurred?" Wilhelm II inquired.
A flicker of delight crossed QinTian's eyes, for he suspected that the anticipated event had transpired. He had been anxious all day, fearing an alteration in the course of history. Now, he could finally relax.
"The Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife have been assassinated in Sarajevo," the officer continued.
"What?" Both Wilhelm II and Admiral Tirpitz gasped in astonishment.
But soon, smiles crept onto their faces. The fate of Archduke Ferdinand was of little concern to them; what mattered was the opportunity this incident presented to Germany.
"Your Majesty, this is splendid news! The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand undoubtedly provides Austro-Hungary with a pretext to declare war on Serbia. The Russians will certainly not stand idly by while Serbia is attacked; they will surely mobilize to assist Austro-Hungary. According to our treaty with them, we are obliged to support Austro-Hungary!" Admiral Tirpitz exclaimed with enthusiasm.
Wilhelm II nodded vigorously; should both Russia and Germany engage, France and Britain would inevitably be drawn into the conflict. This war was on the brink of eruption.
"What a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity!" Wilhelm II marveled.
"Return to Berlin immediately and summon the senior military leaders. War is imminent!" Wilhelm II commanded.
For a Germany intent on reshaping the geopolitical landscape through war to secure broader colonies and markets, the Sarajevo incident was indeed a rare opportunity. Germany's military preparations were already complete; mobilization had secretly commenced in March and could launch an offensive at any moment.
In contrast, Germany's primary adversaries, Russia and France, were still in the process of reorganization, affording Germany a significant advantage in the impending conflict.
In Moscow, at the Summer Palace, Tsar Nicholas II convened Russia's military and political officials after meeting with the Serbian ambassador.
"Gentlemen, Serbia has sought our assistance. They are facing imminent invasion by Austro-Hungary, and we cannot allow this to occur. Should they seize the Balkans, it would spell disaster for the Russian Empire!" Tsar Nicholas II declared with unwavering resolve.
"Indeed, Your Majesty. Regardless of any connection between Archduke Ferdinand's death and Serbia, Austro-Hungary's occupation of the Balkans would be detrimental to Russia. Thus, we must intervene!" Prime Minister Vyacheslav Plehve asserted.
"When can we expect our army to be fully mobilized?" Nicholas II asked Army Minister Sukhomlinov.
"Your Majesty, our mobilization will require at least three months," Sukhomlinov replied.
Nicholas II furrowed his brow; three months was undoubtedly too long. Yet there was no alternative, as the vastness of the Russian Empire, combined with its poorly developed infrastructure and flawed mobilization system, made swift action impossible.
"Your Majesty, even without full mobilization, we need not be concerned. The German forces are primarily stationed on the Western Front, and our standing army is sufficient to invade East Prussia and defeat them. With a stroke of luck, we might even reach Berlin!" Grand Duke Nikolai, commander of the Russian Army, remarked with a grin.
Tsar Nicholas II couldn't help but smile at the thought; he would be delighted if the Russian army could indeed march on Berlin. He was eager to see what his obstinate distant cousin would say then.
"And the navy?" Nicholas II inquired.
"Your Majesty, our navy cannot match the Germans; however, we can adequately secure St. Petersburg," Admiral Ivan Grigorovich, the Navy Minister, responded.
Nicholas II nodded in satisfaction. Following the catastrophic defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, the Russian navy had begun a challenging reconstruction. Though progress had been rapid, there remained a substantial gap compared to the German fleet. Russia's strength lay predominantly in its army, not its navy, so Nicholas II did not expect miracles from the naval forces. As long as they could support coastal defenses and ensure the safety of the homeland, that would suffice. Furthermore, the real adversary for the German navy was not Russia, but the naval hegemon, Britain.
"Gentlemen, I have assured Serbia that we will immediately launch an offensive against Austro-Hungary should they face invasion. If the Germans dare intervene, we will strike East Prussia!" Nicholas II proclaimed with fervor.
In previous international crises in 1909, 1912, and 1913, Russia had retreated three times; however, this time, Tsar Nicholas II resolved not to yield.