The harsh reality for running backs in the NFL didn't form overnight—it's the result of many factors over time.
First, even elite running backs struggle to secure long-term, high-paying contracts after delivering a stellar season. Teams are increasingly hesitant to offer big contracts, fearing that running backs won't be able to maintain top-tier performance. While quarterbacks, wide receivers, and even offensive linemen continue to land record-breaking deals, star running backs are left "begging for scraps."
It's hard for running backs to get contract renewals, especially long or lucrative ones.
Second, the draft outlook for rookie running backs has been steadily worsening. The NFL has strict guidelines for rookie contracts, with clearly defined minimum salaries for each round and pick. This means teams must think about cost-effectiveness: with the same money, do they draft a running back or invest in another position?
Rather than selecting a running back in the first three rounds, many teams have started "bargain hunting" in the sixth, seventh, or even undrafted free agents. It's the ultimate low-risk strategy—running backs are treated as disposable workhorses.
And if the rookie running back underperforms?
No problem. Since they were picked so late, it's no big loss. Teams can cut them and find another cheap replacement easily.
The truth is, despite the NFL's current shortage of elite running backs, many teams refuse to admit it. Because of cost-effectiveness and salary cap issues, team managers hesitate to spend big money on running backs. They'd rather invest in other offensive positions than risk a hefty contract for a star running back.
As a result, the draft prospects for running backs are growing dimmer each year, and there's no sign of improvement on the horizon.
And this is what's happening now.
After Lance's breakout performance in the Crimson Tide's victory over the Trojans, teams across the league noticed his stats, with many eyes lighting up. If he were a quarterback, wide receiver, or tight end, he would be seen as a treasure. Even teams that didn't need players in those positions would take notice.
But when they realized he was a running back, interest faded instantly. Many dismissed him as a one-hit wonder, with over half the team managers throwing his profile into the trash without a second glance.
That's how harsh the reality is.
The NFL operates this way, and so does the NCAA.
However, the NCAA is slightly more forgiving.
Since colleges don't have salary caps and don't need to worry about cost-effectiveness, running backs are often more valued. There are still many college programs that focus on the ground game, including traditional powerhouses like the Crimson Tide. Such schools continue to produce champions with running back-centered offenses.
A look at one particular metric tells the story: the Heisman Trophy.
The Heisman, awarded to the best player in college football, is still heavily influenced by the quarterback position, but running backs have had their share of the spotlight. Since the turn of the millennium, quarterbacks have won the award thirteen times out of sixteen, with running backs taking home the trophy three times.
Historically, however, running backs have dominated the Heisman. As of 2023, running backs, including halfbacks and fullbacks, have claimed forty-six Heisman awards, while quarterbacks have won thirty-nine.
But things are different in the NFL.
As of 2016, running backs rank second in the number of first overall draft picks, with twenty-three running backs taken first overall. Only quarterbacks have been picked first more often, with twenty-nine.
However, the last time a running back was selected first overall was way back in 1995.
And it's not just first overall picks—looking at first-round selections paints an even grimmer picture.
In the early 2000s, the numbers were clear: five running backs were selected in the first round in 2000, three in 2001, and three in 2002.
Fast forward to the present, and in the past three years, the number of first-round running backs has dwindled to one, zero, and two, respectively.
The decline is undeniable.
Just this past April, Crimson Tide running back and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry—a dominant player often called "King Henry" by fans—wasn't selected until the second round, forty-fifth overall, by the Tennessee Titans. He didn't even make it into the first round.
This is the current reality.
But does this mean teams don't need running backs?
Absolutely not. Far from it.
In fact, many teams are desperately lacking quality running backs, and there are several coaches who know the value of having an elite runner in the backfield.
Take, for example, the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers are a powerhouse, a truly formidable team. Since selecting Auburn University quarterback Cam Newton first overall in 2011, the Panthers have quickly risen from mediocrity to become one of the NFL's most feared teams. They've made the playoffs four consecutive seasons since 2012, consistently delivering strong performances.
Last season, the Panthers posted an impressive 15-1 regular-season record, entering the playoffs as the top seed, and they stormed their way to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, they faltered on the big stage, completely outplayed by Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos, and missed out on the championship.
Now, under head coach Ron Rivera, the Panthers are again strong contenders for the new season.
But Rivera has concerns about Newton's condition.
Newton is a prototypical dual-threat quarterback, part of the new wave of mobile quarterbacks alongside Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick. Newton won the league MVP last season and topped the NFL's Top 100 Players list, as voted by his peers. His star couldn't shine brighter.
So what's Rivera worried about?
Injuries.
Like running backs, dual-threat quarterbacks take hits. They run the ball, which means more collisions and, eventually, more injuries.
Take Griffin, for example. After four major injuries over three seasons, the 2011 Offensive Rookie of the Year is now a shadow of his former self. Last season, he didn't even play.
The Washington Redskins (now Commanders), who traded three first-round picks and a second-round pick to select Griffin as the second overall pick in 2011, unceremoniously shipped him off to the Cleveland Browns in a cut-rate deal this offseason.
Rivera doesn't want to see the same fate befall Newton. At the end of the day, quarterbacks should focus on passing, leaving the running to the running backs.
Rivera believes the team needs an elite running back to help ease the load on Newton. However, general manager David Gettleman disagrees.
During this year's draft, Gettleman ignored Rivera's request for a running back, leaving the coach fuming. With the Panthers recently signing Newton to a five-year, $103.8 million extension, there's little cap space left to bring in players through free agency.
As a result, Rivera's vision has been put on hold.
But when Rivera saw Lance's performance, those plans started to reignite.
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