It only took an instant for the gears of the scenario to start going awry.
1917 was both the best and worst year for the Russian Empire. If there was such thing as a revising force in history, 1917 was it.
**
In early spring of that year, the French Third Republic was in a state of extreme anxiety.
Encouraged by the success of the Eastern Front, several offensives were launched on the Western Front, but the heavily entrenched front lines could not be broken through, and the soldiers were becoming listless and war-weary. In addition, the siege of Paris and the battle of Verdun had caused heavy casualties, and the available manpower was running low.
To overcome this, the French army planned to launch an unprecedented offensive to deal a "decisive and devastating blow" to the German army and bring about an end to the war once and for all.
This was a major offensive in the spring of 1917 that would later be called the Nivelle Offensive.
"I know the secret of victory! Victory will come to France within 48 hours!"
This was the boast of Robert Nivelle, the new marshal who replaced Joffre.
This bold statement enthralled the French people, and even Britain was mobilized, and despite the protests of British commander Haig, the British army was placed under French command. After confirming that the German army had been attracted by the British diversionary tactics at Le Havre, Nivelle finally launched a full-scale offensive.
--Mobile barrage artillery fire.
This was Nivelle's sure-fire strategy: artillery would drop an "iron curtain" in front of the advancing infantry, allowing them to charge into the enemy's position while being protected by a barrage of friendly artillery fire.
"No matter how many times we charge, next week we'll get the order to 'wait until dawn and charge' again! This time, we'll finish it off once and for all!"
The Nivelle Offensive bore the hopes of many exhausted soldiers, but contrary to high expectations, its results were disastrous.
On the first day of the offensive, 380,000 French infantry charged, but suffered over 50,000 casualties and failed. A further British attack at Arras failed, suffering 160,000 casualties, far more than the 10,000 originally expected.
In the end, 850,000 soldiers were mobilized, with the French army suffering 190,000 losses alone and 350,000 losses if the British were included, resulting in a historic defeat in which more than a third of the entire army was wasted without achieving any results.
It was a major physical defeat, but also a complete defeat in a psychological sense. The failure of this operation completely shattered the illusion that had been loosely shared among the nation-state until then.
Even if she did not accomplish anything directly, the deaths of her husband and sons must have contributed to France's victory.
It is precisely because they think this way, and because they think this way. Until now, many widows and mothers have been able to endure the deaths of their loved ones. However, it is all merely convenient propaganda for the central government, and instead of protecting its people, the state is driving them to meaningless deaths...
It didn't take long for such conspiracy theories to spread. In fact, many people were already vaguely aware of the reality, but their desire to believe in their country led them to turn a blind eye to it.
Of course, the French government does not hate the people and continue to cause meaningless damage. It is not malicious, but it is incompetent and forces the people to make sacrifices. In any case, in the social contract, the Third Republic of France failed to fulfill its contract with the people.
Based on the republic's ideal of popular sovereignty, the government's power is based on the trust of the people. If the government takes away the people's lives, property, or freedom against their will, the people have the right to resist and can change their government... In the country where the world's first civil revolution took place, the flames of revolution have begun to light again.
**
Prussian General Staff.
In the historic Chief of Staff's office, surrounded by stately furnishings, a new man was sitting on the comfortable sofa in place of the dismissed Falkenhayn. The man who had thwarted the Nivelle Offensive and brought victory to Germany was Erich Ludendorff.
"Ever since I was appointed Chief of Staff of the Eastern Army, I had been losing every war, but this is my first victory...!"
The failure of the Nivelle Offensive was not due to the weakness of the French and British armies. It was due to the strength of the German army. In the face of the crisis of 1916, the German army had carried out bold organizational reforms. Ludendorff was the driving force behind these reforms.
The "Eastern faction" led by Ludendorff, who placed emphasis on the Eastern front, had long criticized the "Western faction" led by Falkenhayn, who maintained an emphasis on the Western front, but the failure of the Schlieffen Plan became clear to everyone when it failed to achieve its goal of "defeating France in the first place" even after committing nearly 90% of its military forces to the Western front.
Nevertheless, Falkenhayn and the other "Westernists" insisted on the attack on Verdun and continued to adhere to the Schlieffen Plan.
However, the Verdun campaign not only failed to produce any results, but also saw Germany's eastern allies, such as the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Ottoman Turkey, and Romania, being pushed to the brink of collapse by the Russian Empire like falling dominoes, leading to growing criticism of Germany's westward-focused war strategy within the country.
In the end, with the cancellation of the battle for Verdun, Falkenhayn was replaced and Ludendorff was appointed de facto Chief of the General Staff (Hindenburg was nominally in charge, but was mostly just a figurehead).
Ludendorff immediately restructured the command system at each army and division headquarters to give priority to the orders of the General Staff over the individual judgment of each commander, further centralizing power. Field staffs were established at each headquarters, and the staff there acted just like the Soviet political officers of Stalin's past, prioritizing the will of the General Headquarters over the independent judgment of each unit.
Furthermore, he carried out a series of reforms, including establishing the Intelligence Department as an independent department, taking control of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, establishing a propaganda department, centralizing military production, and designating the Air Force as the "third military force" after the Army and Navy and placing it directly under the General Staff.
In this way, the German General Staff came under control of not only military affairs, but also newspapers, films, paintings, propaganda, foreign policy, military production, and all other fields, and smoothly established a total war system that would maximize and utilize the country's war potential.
Meanwhile, on the Western Front, the aggressive offensive which was causing great losses was abandoned, and instead, the front line was withdrawn to preempt the Allied offensive, employing a scorched earth tactic and aiming to fight back using the fortified trench fortifications known as the "Siegfried Line."
The culmination of this was the interception of the "Nivelle Offensive," in which Ludendorff, who had obtained the attack plan through spies, ambushed the advancing Allied forces and nearly annihilated them.
"...So this is the taste of victory. It feels good."
Ludendorff was alone in his empty study, holding a wine glass and gazing at a map. His gaze was no longer on France, but was directed toward the eastern lands.
**
In the first place, the technical limitations of the time (error correction associated with long-range artillery fire, means of communication between infantry and artillery, and craters caused by intense artillery fire) could not be overcome with moving barrage fire, and it became clear that Nivelle's concept was nothing more than armchair theory.
All that remained for the Allied soldiers who barely managed to survive was a sense of helplessness and anger toward the higher-ups who had caused the deaths of so many of their comrades in such a meaningless battle.
"This has all happened because the higher-ups are incompetent!"
With their already depleted reserves now completely depleted, the French army was no longer able to even maintain the front line, let alone launch an offensive. In addition, the soldiers, fed up with the incompetence of their superiors and their deaths on the front line, started mutinying and ignoring orders one after another, and in August the situation they had been fearing finally occurred.
"Communists rise up in Paris! Revolution breaks out in France!!"
The August Revolution, the world's first communist revolution, began in France.