"I believe the Sino-Japanese War was instigated by the Russian government using Japan as a tool. However, regardless of the immediate consequences of this war, one inevitable outcome is that China's entire traditional economic system will completely collapse."
— Excerpt from Engels' letter to Laura Lafargue, late September 1894
Since the end of the Sino-French War in 1885, the Qing Dynasty has enjoyed a rare period of relatively relaxed external pressure over the past nine years.
First, there was the seemingly thriving Self-Strengthening Movement. In terms of establishing factories and introducing machinery, it arguably surpassed even Japan's Meiji Restoration.
Next, there was the Beiyang Fleet, the premier naval force in Asia, boasting over forty vessels with a total displacement of 40,000 tons.
Lastly, financially, customs duties and internal taxes were centralized under the government's control. Annual revenue increased, and after paying off indemnities from the Ili crisis and the Sino-French War, there were still surpluses of several million taels of silver each year.
If anyone had spoken to the Qing about the possibility of losing to Japan in 1894, they would have been laughed at.
However, behind the Qing's impressive facade, a fierce power struggle was unfolding within the court.
In 1889, Emperor Guangxu assumed personal rule, but Empress Dowager Cixi did not relinquish power, leading to a factional struggle between the conservative "Rear Faction," supporting Cixi, and the "Imperial Faction," supporting Guangxu.
Cixi's desire for stability stemmed from her tenuous claim to supreme power, which she wielded through her "son" Guangxu. As long as Guangxu remained in power, he posed a threat to Cixi's legitimacy. Consequently, Cixi was a figure who sought to balance all factions, prioritizing stability above all else to safeguard her authority.
Therefore, Cixi, seeking stability, did not entirely oppose the Self-Strengthening Movement but was not progressive enough to implement sweeping reforms. Her focus was on maintaining stability.
This internal power struggle influenced the Qing's decision to intervene in Korea.
The Imperial Faction advocated a strong stance against Japan to bolster Guangxu's prestige and claim to power, while the Rear Faction, close to Cixi, preferred to avoid conflict, especially since 1894 was the year of her sixtieth birthday. Her famous saying, "Whoever displeases me today, I shall make them suffer for life," was from this period.
Li Hongzhang, closely aligned with the Rear Faction, also favored maintaining peace. Thus, on June 12, negotiations began between China and Japan over the joint withdrawal of troops from Korea.
However, as mentioned earlier, the Japanese Foreign Ministry outright rejected the proposal, fearing that if the Qing forces withdrew unilaterally, Japan would lose its pretext for remaining in Korea.
From June 16, Foreign Minister Mutsu Munemitsu began pushing for "joint reforms of Korean internal affairs" with Li Hongzhang, clearly aiming to keep Qing forces entangled in Korea to justify Japan's continued presence and create friction leading to war.
Li Hongzhang, not being naive, soon realized Japan's schemes.
"With heavy troops for negotiation, they indeed seek to intervene in Korean internal affairs, a plot to seize control."
Li concluded that Japan was preparing to take over the Korean Peninsula.
On June 17, Chinese envoy Wang Fengzao suggested to Li that increasing military presence could deter Japan, but Li rejected this, fearing it would increase tensions.
On June 18, Yuan Shikai similarly recommended sending reinforcements. Li responded by ordering the Beiyang Fleet commander Ding Ruchang to send a few ships to Incheon to "bolster their presence."
While Li Hongzhang engaged in protracted negotiations with Japan, on June 22, Mutsu Munemitsu decisively sent a rebuttal and a first severance of diplomatic relations to China, claiming that Japan's actions adhered to the spirit of the Tianjin Treaty and stating unequivocally, "I absolutely cannot withdraw the troops stationed in Korea."
The situation grew increasingly tense.
Realizing bilateral negotiations were futile, Li resorted to the Qing's traditional diplomatic strategy: "using barbarians to control barbarians," leveraging the conflicting interests of foreign powers to avert conflict.
Li knew that external pressure could force Japan to back down. Thus, he sought Russian intervention.
"I have received instructions from my government. The Chinese government has requested Russia to mediate the Korean incident."
On June 25, Russian envoy Alexander Hitrovo met with Mutsu Munemitsu in Tokyo. After a formal handshake, they sat on European-style sofas to discuss the matter.
"What is your country's stance?"
"The Russian government hopes the Sino-Japanese dispute can be resolved peacefully."
Hitrovo's words sounded grandiose, but Mutsu knew that the Chinese must have offered significant concessions to the Russians, known for their greed.
"Japan seeks only to ensure Korea's independence and peace, with no other intentions."
"Can I understand that if China withdraws its troops from Korea, Japan will also agree to withdraw its forces?"
Mutsu paused before nodding, "While we generally agree, given the current mutual distrust and confrontation, this would be difficult."
He accused the Qing of meddling in Korean affairs with deceitful tactics.
"So, Japan has decided not to withdraw troops? This won't help the Korean situation."
Hitrovo warned.
Russia's interest lay in its own ambitions towards Korea, amidst its "Great Game" rivalry with Britain in Asia.
In 1885, Britain attempted to occupy Geomun Island to block Russia's expansion towards a warm-water port, reflecting their broader strategy to contain Russia.
Thus, Japan's proposal to establish Korean independence appealed to Russia, as it did to Japan.
Understanding this, Mutsu proposed that Japan and China jointly undertake Korean internal reforms or, failing that, allow Japan to do so alone.
Hitrovo, seeing mutual benefits, agreed readily.
"Very well, I trust your commitment."
They shook hands, each aware of the other's underlying intentions.
Besides the Russian "saviors" summoned by Li Hongzhang, the British also exerted their influence. The acting British chargé d'affaires in Japan, John Bassett Moore, submitted a memorandum to Mutsu Munemitsu, urging peaceful negotiations.
Britain's primary interests in China were concentrated in the Yangtze River Valley. To ensure these interests weren't threatened by other powers, particularly the Russians, Britain closely monitored developments in Northeast Asia and Korea.
The diplomatic pressure from Britain was significantly greater than that from Russia, compelling Mutsu Munemitsu to agree to continue the withdrawal negotiations.