Joseph's grasp of history may not have been great, but he understood that Aunt Sophie's optimism was perhaps a bit premature. There were still plenty of challenges ahead.
On the 19th, the Constituent Assembly left Versailles and returned to Paris.
As soon as the Constituent Assembly returned to Paris, a member named Mirabeau proposed the following idea: "Let the king abdicate and pass the throne to the dauphin. Considering that the dauphin is still young, in accordance with French tradition, a noble and esteemed aristocrat should be appointed as the regent to handle affairs on his behalf."
Everyone knew exactly who this noble and esteemed aristocrat was referring to. The king's two brothers were already in exile, and given their stance on the revolution, they were not viable candidates for this position. So, the only option was the Duke of Orleans.
This proposal gained support from many members of the assembly because they had no faith that the king, who had been forced to return to Paris, would genuinely support constitutional rule. They believed that having such a person on the throne would introduce too many uncertainties into the new government.
For a moment, Louis XVI's position became precarious, and chants of "Long Live Louis XVII" were heard in the streets.
In theory, the Duke of Orleans had been waiting for this moment for a long time. However, something unexpected happened. The Duke of Orleans suddenly accepted an offer from the Marquis de Lafayette and left France to become the ambassador to London.
Conventional wisdom would have expected the Duke of Orleans to stay in France, as leaving the country at this point was almost akin to exile. But it was rumored that after a secret meeting with Lafayette, the Duke of Orleans agreed to this request. Other rumors suggested that the Duke of Orleans had engaged in some unsavory activities behind the scenes, which were discovered by the Marquis de Lafayette. It was said that a priest friend of Condorcet had found evidence of his less-than-honorable actions and relayed this information to Condorcet, who then provided it to the Marquis de Lafayette. However, Lafayette, being an honorable man, chose not to publicly expose these actions and tarnish the Duke's reputation. Nevertheless, Lafayette believed that the Duke's continued presence in France would be detrimental to the nation, and he thus pressured the Duke into leaving.
There were also other speculations, such as the Duke's sense of responsibility and his understanding of the potential disruption he might cause to democracy if he assumed the regency. However, Joseph couldn't help but think that the first rumor might contain more truth than meets the eye.
After successfully deterring the Duke of Orleans, Lafayette turned his attention to Mirabeau. He used similar tactics in an attempt to convince Mirabeau to leave France and become the ambassador to Constantinople. However, Mirabeau stood his ground and refused the offer. Yet, Lafayette struck a heavy blow by rallying the assembly to not only reject Mirabeau's proposal for members of the government to become ministers but also to pass a resolution prohibiting members of the assembly from becoming ministers. This effectively blocked the path for Mirabeau to hold any ministerial position.
At this point, it seemed that Lafayette had gained complete control over the situation. The only significant challenge remaining was the issue of finances.
One of the main reasons Louis XVI had called the Estates-General in the first place was the pressing financial crisis. While the political landscape had changed dramatically, the financial troubles remained.
It was like the problem described by later scientists Clausius and Kelvin in the second law of thermodynamics: there is no way to decrease the entropy of a closed system without increasing the overall entropy. While the royal expenses had been reduced, new expenses had emerged.
First, conservative aristocrats who were unwilling to relinquish their past privileges were fomenting rebellion throughout the country. Suppressing them required more funds. For years, France had been the dominant power on the European continent, but many neighboring countries were now eyeing the opportunity to challenge that position.
For instance, the Habsburg family of Austria had always sought to restore the so-called "Holy Roman Empire" to its former glory. Despite the empire's name, it was neither holy nor Roman, and it was far from an empire. Apart from producing numerous princesses, it had little to boast about.
In the Seven Years' War, Austria and France had been on the same side, but the outcome had been disastrous for France. Interestingly, France had achieved significant success when it had previously allied with the Muslim Turks against the devoutly Catholic Habsburgs and when it had allied with Protestants against Catholic Habsburgs during the Thirty Years' War. However, once they joined forces with the Catholic Habsburgs, they suffered a crushing defeat. It seemed that, in God's grand design, France was meant to combat Catholics. Although France had imprisoned the Pope, allied with non-Christians against Christians, and joined forces with Protestants against Catholics, Joseph believed he was still a good child of God.
Nevertheless, if France showed any vulnerability, the Habsburgs might seize the opportunity to exploit it.
Additionally, there were the Low Countries, Prussia, and Russia. Nearly every neighboring country on the European continent hoped to gain an advantage should France falter. Not to mention the perennial troublemaker in the west—the United Kingdom. If they didn't pounce on France and tear off a few pieces of its flesh while it was vulnerable, they wouldn't deserve the nickname "John Bull, who never meddles."
To protect against these neighbors, France needed to strengthen its military. However, both King Louis XVI and the assembly had doubts about the reliability of the French army.
The high-ranking officers in the French army were predominantly aristocrats, many of whom had fled the country and were now potentially guiding foreign armies against France. Some were even relatives of Princes of the Blood, as Victor Hugo would later describe in his novel "Ninety-Three." For example, the commander of the Republican Army, Guéhéneuc, was the great-grandson of the royalist Marquis de Lantenac. In "Ninety-Three," Guéhéneuc was portrayed as a loyal supporter of the Republic. However, in reality, who could guarantee the loyalty of those noble officers in the army? Who could assure that, should the Count of Provence or the Count of Artois return with foreign armies, these officers would not change sides?
Some impatient members of the assembly even suggested that all aristocratic officers be replaced with third-estate officers. But such a thoughtless proposal was unworkable. The so-called third-estate officers were not only few in number, but they were typically junior officers at best—few had even attained the rank of lieutenant. These officers, with very few exceptions, were not well-versed in military tactics or strategies. They might be competent at commanding a platoon or a company, but leading a whole army in battle was a different matter altogether.
In fact, even the members proposing such ideas understood the impracticality of this proposal. However, they presented it to demonstrate their loyalty to the people and their willingness to take bold measures to win popular support.
This was a common flaw in a representative system: in order to gain the support of the electorate, you had to appear more radical than your opponents, even if it meant making unworkable proposals. This trend persisted through the generations. For example, if environmental protection was a concern, politicians had to support shutting down dangerous nuclear power plants, dismantling air-polluting coal-fired power plants, demolishing hydroelectric dams that altered river ecosystems and geology, and scrapping wind turbines that caused infrasound pollution and threatened bird populations. Eventually, they had to support "clean, natural, love-powered energy."
To address the unreliability of the military, more funds were required. First and foremost, the army's pay needed to be guaranteed. The reason King Louis XVI had gradually lost control over the military was often due to the failure to pay the soldiers' wages on time. If the assembly wanted to maintain control over the military, they had to ensure that the troops were well-fed and paid.
Secondly, they needed to establish a military force that was loyal to the assembly. The British Parliament's control over the country was largely because they had a "parliamentary army." England's parliamentary army had evolved from Oliver Cromwell's New Model Army. The National Assembly, or the Constituent Assembly, was eager to create its own version of a New Model Army.
The closest thing to a "New Model Army" at the moment was the "National Guard." However, the National Guard was still essentially a militia. Despite Lafayette's best efforts, it was still a ragtag force. Transforming this ragtag militia into a "New Model Army" required not only time but also money.
Then there was the issue of various new and old debts, totaling up to 45 billion livres. The interest alone was a staggering sum. This placed an enormous burden on the assembly.
Defaulting on the debt was not an option, as much of this debt had been incurred from the wealthiest third-estate bourgeoisie, who now formed the backbone of the nation.
Faced with this dilemma, some members had begun discussing privately whether it was time to consider increasing taxes, even though it was a politically incorrect move. However, no one had openly proposed this yet. Lafayette, however, was not concerned because his friend, Bishop Talleyrand, had a solution in mind.