The high probability is still that Li Jiangao and Qiao Ze would take up the two spots directly.
As for Li Jiangao, there's no need to mention him. Qiao Ze's election as a member of the academy could only be described as a consensus, even if Qiao Ze is still so young.
There's no helping it, it's said that the Chinese Mathematical Society has already received news that the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences is almost certain to award the Crafoord Prize to Qiao Ze this September.
The reason is also quite ludicrous, it's said that many eligible candidates for the award have expressed on public or semi-public forums that they would rather not compete with Qiao Ze for certain honors. While it's subtly put, it's more a matter of feeling powerless.
The scientific community has a relatively standard set of criteria for how to rank a scientist's contributions.
First and foremost is groundbreaking foundational work, because it almost speaks for irreplaceable contributions.
