That night, the large-scale premiere of the new films included not only "Mr. & Mrs. Smith" but also Luc Besson's "Danny the Dog", and "Kingdom of Heaven", which had opened last weekend and still maintained its initial scale of release. These were the three films with the largest screening scale in the North American film market at the time.
Due to the simultaneous release of two new films, Cinema Score's market research analysts were already positioned across major cinemas throughout the USA to gather firsthand data from audiences. This information would help analyze and predict the subsequent box office trends and overall North American revenue for the films.
Howard Miller was one of these analysts. After hastily finishing dinner, he headed to the largest and most well-known commercial chain cinema in West Hollywood.
While the films were still showing, Howard found the cinema's operations manager, Kohler. Having frequented West Hollywood, Howard was quite familiar with the key personnel of several major cinemas.
Inside the office of the operations department, Howard asked, "Kohler, how are the three biggest films performing?"
Kohler, a bald middle-aged man and the operations manager, took the cigarette Howard offered, glanced outside the window to ensure no one was looking, lit it, and took a deep, satisfying drag.
Howard lit one for himself too and moved next to the air conditioner, switching it to ventilation mode.
After a heavy drag, Kohler exhaled a cloud of smoke and said, "'Kingdom of Heaven' had a weak opening last week, and its occupancy rate hasn't improved. Today's earnings were even lower than the pre-show of 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' tonight, which included a full booking that was quite impressive."
"A full booking?" Howard looked at Kohler.
"It's not what you think," Kohler understood the misconception and explained, "It's a fan event organized by Matthew Horner's fan club in West Hollywood. A 200-seat hall had about 150 to 160 attendees."
Nodding, Howard quickly jotted this down and asked, "Just this one booking?"
"Are you asking about just this cinema or the entire AMG?" Kohler queried.
"Both," Howard replied with a smile.
"Just one here," Kohler thought for a moment before adding, "But I spoke with the headquarters yesterday. They mentioned that in many large and medium-sized cities like New York, Seattle, Phoenix, Houston, and Chicago, fan organizations for Matthew Horner have arranged viewings at AMG cinemas for the pre-show of 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith'."
Realizing the significance of these organized fan events, Howard noted that this could mean much better box office performance for "Mr. & Mrs. Smith" than initially predicted. The pre-sales were already promising, with the company forecasting an opening weekend of $50 to $55 million, but perhaps this was an underestimate of Matthew Horner's personal appeal.
Considering this, he asked jokingly, "Kohler, based on your experience, what do you predict the opening weekend for 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' will be?"
Kohler didn't reply immediately, instead asking, "What's your company's forecast?"
"$50 to $55 million," Howard replied.
"That's too low! Too conservative!" Kohler pointed at a poster of "Mr. & Mrs. Smith" in the room and said, "Here at this cinema, the turnout and sales for this film tonight were three times the total of 'Kingdom of Heaven' and 'Danny the Dog' combined. Look at the buzz around Matthew Horner and Charlize Theron. Do the other films generate this kind of talk? Plus, headquarters informed us this afternoon that starting tomorrow, 'Kingdom of Heaven' will have its screenings reduced by fifteen percentage points, all of which will be allocated to 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith.'"
Howard nodded thoughtfully.
Kohler continued, "If the pre-shows for 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' do well, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets 40% of tomorrow's screenings across North America!"
Speaking with over twenty years of industry experience, Kohler added, "With the star power of Matthew Horner and Charlize Theron, and the boost from fans, I personally think 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' could surpass your projections by 20 to 30 percent."
He emphasized, "Don't forget, Matthew Horner's last three films were all box office hits. His commercial value isn't something that those niche, award-winning actors can match."
With this insight, Howard remembered a review he once read that suggested Matthew Horner's market appeal might surpass many A-list stars.
Kohler scoffed, "Many A-list stars are just fashion and award chasers. How much box office appeal can they really have? I bet 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' will prove Matthew Horner is a top-tier star."
"Indeed," Howard agreed, though he added
, "Too bad he doesn't have any significant acting awards."
To which Kohler, ever the pragmatist, responded, "Acting awards? Ask Hollywood's major studios if they care. What really sets Matthew Horner's status in the industry is his salary, which is primarily based on his past box office successes..."
Interrupting him, Howard joked, "So you subscribe to the box office theory?"
"It's not just me!" Kohler extinguished his cigarette, "It's the producers in Hollywood who do!"
Struck by this truth, Howard had no counterargument.
After ensuring the cigarette was fully out, Kohler tossed it in the bin and added, "Once 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' succeeds, the offers Matthew Horner will receive could easily surpass this year's Oscar winner Jamie Foxx by a mile!"
As Howard's watch beeped, signaling it was time to move on, he looked at his schedule. "'Danny the Dog' is about to finish, I better go."
Kohler nodded, "Come back later, I'll buy you a coffee."
At the exit of the cinema hall, Howard waited a few minutes as the audience began to trickle out. He approached the first few patrons, handing out small gifts and starting his survey collection.
When he asked about the film they watched, one viewer angrily remarked, "'Danny the Dog' was a disaster. I came because of Luc Besson and Morgan Freeman, but it was a complete mess. I should've watched 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' instead; at least its star is a real looker!"
As the viewers continued to express their disappointment, Howard noted the lackluster response. Shifting his focus to the exit of 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith', he prepared himself for a different reaction, given the buzz around the film and its stars.
Indeed, when he started surveying the viewers of 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith', the feedback was starkly different. The viewers were excited and enthusiastic, a stark contrast to the reactions to 'Danny the Dog'. Howard realized that for 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith', the pre-shows might just be a harbinger of a successful box office run, driven by both star power and a solid fan base.
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