We watch the slow line of spectators going home for dinner. Tonight's tickets are not for free. If you want to see the end of the film, you'll have to pay for it. That's how it works: the dealer gives a free sample until you're addicted and beg him to take your money for the next shot. That's nothing personal. It's just business.
Doc knows his business too: "I'll give you something to think about. We have 25 players. Each received one million euros to be here. Add the rent of the stadium, the costs of security and organization, plus two or three million for the opening show. Today, someone spent about 30 million without charging for entrance tickets. Who's paying for all this free entertainment? Use your eyes…"
It's a giveaway. The name of the official sponsor of the European Games is everywhere: "BTW. Bet To Win. This afternoon's opening show and all the famous football players are nothing but a teaser, right? They spend a few millions to get the attention, and then they milk the cows to recoup the investment."
Doc nods: "Bet To Win paid the organization 200 million euros. In return, they got the exclusive rights for taking bets on every European Game. BTW bets on earning a nett profit of 400 million with the deal.
» The TV stations and other media pay 200 million euros for the exclusive rights to broadcast the European Games. They double their investment by selling TV time to advertisers, who make a profit thanks to all the consumers who buy their products.
» The European Games organization receives 400 million euros, guaranteed. The total costs are 40 million, of which they've spent 75% spent on today's opening, on the 'teaser', as you call it. Everyone bets on gamblers and consumers to pay for this, and everyone wins."
Those astronomic amounts make me dizzy. Society has turned into a Trillion Dollar Poker Game. On one side of the table, private enterprise holds all the cards. Governments granted big companies every right to make money. On the other side sit the workers and consumers, with the right to pay the price for their ignorance and the right to remain silent. They'll probably lose that last right too, since shouting «Look At Me! I'm FABULOUS» gives power and profit to trillion-dollar Social Media companies.
"Bet To Win will make a gross profit of 400 million euros on the bets of the viewers of the European Games? In nine days?", I ask.
"Why not? It's just two or three euros per viewer. Three hours ago, you asked me how I make money with bets. There are two tricks. The first is simple, you could have figured it out by yourself: organize the betting. The bookmaker always wins. Gambling is a closed circuit. BTW creates an illusion and shows only winners. As they make the rules and invent the odds, they can't lose. The gamblers, on the other hand, pay the price for believing that miracles happen. It's science, it's mathematics, and above all, it's Economy."
"I know. I have a degree in Economy, Doc. Bet To Win means: you bet and they win. That's why I wonder how you can turn those odds in your favour. It's a mystery to me…"
Doc lifts his eyebrows and compliments me for my unexpected qualities with an admiring look: "You have a degree in Economy? You're an amazing person, Bugs. Let me explain the background of this event to you.
» The European Games are the third wave of entertainment.
» The first wave was sports. Well, originally, the ruling class entertained themselves, fighting wars. In the times of the ancient Greeks, war and sports were the same business. The classic Olympics were military training to prepare soldiers for battle. Only at the end of the 19th century did sport become a popular form of entertainment for the upper class (the working class didn't have time and energy to waste on sports).
» After WWII, war evolved into sports. You can show your superiority by beating the shit out of others, or by throwing bombs on their heads, but you can also kick their asses at the FIFA Football World War Cup. Football is war, but instead of burying the victims on the football field after a defeat, you give them another chance to show what they're worth. Sports is war. Generals and athletes fight for the same medals. But war has only losers. The winners of WWII buried 50 million dead and paid billions to repair the damage. In sports, everybody is a winner. Every athlete wins a sharp mind and a healthy body.
» Sports requires a young and fit body. To win an Olympic medal, you need to start training before you're born. The ruthless competition kills many sport-consumers before they get a chance to spend their money. Another problem was: running or playing football hardly costs anything. The industry doesn't earn much money with sport, while they need to pay millions to the star players who make each sport popular. It's nice if you make 69 dollars profit on a 70-dollar shirt with a name on it, but if you have to pay 100 million euros for that name… You'll have to sell a lot of shirts to earn the other guy's income first.
» They solved those business problems with the second wave of entertainment: the electronic games (including the social media). Gaming is booming. We live in a world where 90% of the people live in poverty and the other 10% spend their time playing games.
» From an evolutionary point of view, playing meant learning. What do our children learn when they push buttons to kill virtual enemies or zombies? How smart is it to use all your brain capacity to put three equal symbols in line or to throw a bird into a pigsty? We learn that a creative life full of activities is boring, and we learn to be never satisfied unless we kill our time and do nothing. In a nutshell: we learn to be perfect consumers.
» Electronic games are so popular because everyone can do it. No need to be young and fit. No need to train 27 hours per day, 9 days per week, 65 weeks per year. Everyone can be a winner at the basic levels. The profit is much higher than in sports; there are no big stars with million-dollar sponsor contracts. The industry pays the costs to develop the games, that's true, but they sell them for 50 euros per almost-free copy. Gamers need to buy new consoles every year (technology changes fast) and expensive gadgets like the 3D goggles, the tactical gloves, the lightsaber, and the steering wheel. Electronic games generate astronomic benefits to the industry, and players happily enjoy breaking their records. Every consumer can play and every consumer can win. All it costs you is a shipload of spare time. Only the medical world objects.
» The social result of those time and money consuming habits causes an epidemic outbreak of game-addicted weirdoes and socially bad-adjusted people. They never leave their homes, never sleep decent hours, only eat fast food, and never work out or spend time with others.
» The most popular games are the most violent games. Their goal is to kill their opponent, so he can start all over again, at level 1, losing all his invested time and money (which is, of course, extremely interesting for the video game organising industry). Games force players to choose sides, form alliances, never leave friends behind in battle. Game designers abuse the good qualities of their clients, manipulating them to spend more time and money in a virtual world and neglect any real life in the real world. Frequent players show socially unacceptable behaviour, like aggression up to an intolerable level. Bullying and racism on Social Media have become incurable viruses.
» Video games easily turn from a habit into an obsession and can become an addiction as strong as hard drugs or alcohol. Once you're inside your voluntarily chosen prison, you will never get out again. Social media have the same effect: people spend more time playing with their phones than with other people. As a doctor, I've seen cases… Video games are a booming business for the industry, but society pays a high price.
» The industry wasn't satisfied yet. They've hired scientists to invent a third wave: the European Games. We're not going back to the time of gladiators who were practising to become better soldiers, we're not going to the future where wars will be fought by soldiers who push buttons and fight with drones via remote control, no, we're going back to normal people in normal life.
» Look at the world population from the industry's point of view. Forget about the poorest half, as they have nothing worth stealing. Forget all those crazy people with painted faces in football stadiums too. They already sacrifice their last penny to the Champions. The weirdoes who live day and night in a virtual game world? We already own their wallets. What's left? The normal people.
» Society pays millions to someone who smashes a ball with a racket to the other side of a field. That same society has no money to pay a nurse, a teacher or a police officer for their work. Normal people think that's crazy. They refuse to spend their money on bad habits.
» The industry had a problem with normal people. Until now. Normal people aren't a problem; they're an opportunity. How do you profit from normal people? It's easy: you take nurses, teachers and police officers, housewives and office workers and school children, normal people who do normal things, and then you turn them into stars. That's why the media and Bet To Win invented the European Games.
» The Games start on the first Friday of October, so there's no competition from other events. There are 55 European countries, but the organization wants only 50 to compete: they excluded Russia for their doping-related past, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan were not invited because they're too far away, and Vatican City's only citizen refused to participate in the Games. Here, in Brest, you'll see people from every other country in Europe, trying to be the best at normal things: children compete in Hide-And-Seek, housewives compete in Shopping Trolley Racing, office clerks play Waste Paper Basket Ball, teenagers play pinball-machines and pillow fights… Nobody has to train for it or classify to compete. Each country picks their teams from the streets, a few weeks before the Games start."
I interrupt Doc's monologue: "They pick the players from the streets? But… This is sports. We want to see the best of the best of the best. We want to see athletes do incredible things, in an unbelievable effort, with outstanding beauty."
Doc continues: "What we want is to be entertained. That's the success of these European Games: it's fun, fun, fun. It's not the strongest, fastest or toughest who wins, but the one who does things we like, who surprises us and who makes us laugh. The players are normal people. They don't even have to be good; all they have to be is likeable. To make it easy to identify with players from each country, they have to be stereotypes: Scandinavian countries will send tall and blonde people, while players from Southern European countries are short and dark."
"It's a boondoggle.", I say.
"No, it's a goldmine. The organization doesn't pay the players. The winners get a medal, but no prize money. You play for your country, for fifteen minutes of fame and glory, and for a free one-week all-inclusive holiday in a nice hotel in Brest. People stand in line to be part of it, to appear on TV. It wouldn't surprise me if next year's competitors have to pay a fee for being here.
» The organization generates 400 million euros from betting and media, and spends only 10% of it on the costs. The opening ceremony was in a stadium, but all the other Games take place in a closed location. No problems with drunken masses or security. Just TV cameras, selling entertainment during dinner and at prime-time, with lots of advertisements for takeaway pizza and beer. Bread & Circus.
» The European Games recognise the important work of normal Europeans, by giving them attention and rewards. Imagine you're a housewife. You see how the Best Housewife of Europe wins the Shopping Trolley Race… How do you feel? She's normal, like you. Next year, it might be you who lifts that trophy… You'll give your life to compete here. These European Games will become a tremendous success. It's science. It never fails…"
I'm impressed; no ethics are powerful enough to stop the industry from making money. Since the glorious days of the Roman Empire, Bread & Circus have developed into Pizza and Pillow Fights. Humanity hasn't changed one bite.
The stadium is empty now. Doc stops his lecture and starts his instructions: "We have work to do. That's why we're here."
Ten boys and girls are waiting for us on the field. They'll help with the experiments. Doc instructs them to pick up every ball and return it on the penalty spot as fast as possible, exactly like they did it for the professional players earlier today. I change into shorts, shirt and football shoes. The plastic penalty-killer defends the goal and I have to score from eleven metres. Doc makes notes. Some electronic instruments in the stadium register my data and compare them with the professionals we've seen in action this afternoon.
Doc acts as my coach: "First you do a few shots, five or six, at each corner, just to find out for yourself which one you like best. You can shoot low, which is easier but you'll have less space, or you can aim at the bigger area at the top corner, with a higher risk to shoot over. As your best foot is your right, the right corner, left for the goalkeeper, usually is your best shot."
I don't need five shots in every corner. Already after two or three, I notice that the upper right corner is my favourite spot.
"Now we're going for the first series. You shoot a series of 10, all at the upper right corner. Then you take a break, drink something or jog around the field. When you feel ready, you shoot the next series. We test how your score goes up when you practise, and how your score goes down when you get tired."
I don't get tired easily. If you're a spy, like me, you need to stay in shape. I run at least twice a week, spend at least two hours per week in the gym, and try to add as much physical exercise as my working hours permit. Shooting penalties doesn't wear you out like sprinting or other intensive sports; I do 250 shots before I feel how the fatigue sneaks in.
After I showered and changed, Doc shows me the prints: "The camera registers the deviation with the perfect shot. Your point of aiming is always the same, the centre of the free space of the upper right corner. The computer compares your average shot with that point. Do you see how you benefit from training? Each series scores a little better than the one before, until the fifth, your best score of all. You remain more or less stable until series 15, when you get tired. Then, your scores go down. If we want this to be truly scientific, we should repeat this experiment every day during the rest of the week, but it will only confirm our first result: you can improve by training, but not much. Talent, the feet-eye-coordination you were born with, is the most important basic skill any player should have."
"Interesting. So all those players we've seen this afternoon only win because they are born with a quality that others don't have?"
"No, that would be a wrong conclusion. Look at series 14 and 16. They score almost 25% lower than series 15. Your motivation was the same, your skills were the same, and the level of training was the same. What causes that peak between two lows?
» Compare it to throwing a coin. It's heads or tails, a 50% chance. Flip two coins, four times. Statistics predict your results: two times you'll get one each, one throw shows two heads, and one shows two tails. But if you put the theory to practice, only a small percentage of each series of 4 x 2 gives the predicted result. The missing factor is «luck». If we take your five best shots, you could compete with the professionals and even join the final five. But the odds to produce your five best shots in a series are less than 80 to 1. You'll have to play 80 rounds to go to the final only once.", Doc says.
"You're referring to calculating the odds of your top five in the final, right? Even if those five would have the best statistics, it would mainly be a matter of luck if they do what you expect."
"The mysterious luck factor… We'll study that in the second part of our experiment. There comes my colleague with the Golden Shoe. Bugs, I'd like to present my colleague, Doctor Tong Au, a doping specialist from Macao, China. You're late, Tong Au. We've been waiting for you."
Tong Au, a man with thin black hair in his late fifties or early sixties, makes a small bow to excuse himself: "Sorry for that. We had her the Queen to visit the hospital, the Queen of England, that is. We show her the Queen around, and we pass a room with this male patient naked and playing with his flute. Her the Queen was shocked. So I explain that him the male patient he has Ejaculatum Frequentis. He has to play his flute or his balls explode. So we come to the next room with this male patient naked and the nurse on top of him, riding him like the wind. So I explain «same Ejaculatum Frequentis, but better insurance». Her the Queen was so shocked, she fainted. That's why I'm late."
Doc waves it away: "It's alright. Never mind. We go on, Tong Au. Bugs, my assistant, is a real talent. He has just shot a series of 80% hits on penalty kicks. We know that superstar Zlatan Ibrahimovic scores 87%. It will be just a matter of time and this young man will get a contract in the Premier League."
I protest: "Zlatan shoots penalties with a real goalkeeper on the line, with the stress of an important match and the pressure that a failure might cost his club millions. I'm just repeating a simple exercise here on a sunny Friday afternoon, without any of the reasons that caused Zlatan's 13% of misses. Zlatan would have scored 100% under these conditions."
"Zlatan scored 80% this afternoon. He missed one of his five penalties. Your best series was exactly as good as his."
"Zlatan has suffered a severe injury. He's not at his best."
"Zlatan is a professional who trains every day. You should wonder why someone like you, untrained in this discipline, can match up with someone like him. That's why Tong Au has brought the Golden Shoe, an invention of mine. It will generate valuable data for our investigation."
The Golden Shoe is a machine. It consists of a motor with an arm (it's better to say: a leg, because it has a foot with a football shoe attached to the end) and an upstanding little ring where we place one specific football. Doc says everything is absolutely scientific, but I see a lot of chicken wire, rubber bands and scotch tape. The machine depends on scientific prayers to keep the scientific junk together.
The Golden Shoe produces a kick with exactly the same speed and power with every turn of the wheel. To keep the experiment as scientific as possible, it's important to use the same ball every time and place it in exactly the same way on the ring from which it will be shot, with the valve in the middle and the two markers, left and right, matching the placeholders on the machine.
The Golden Shoe starts doing what I was doing earlier: shooting penalties in the upper right corner while the camera gathers the results. For being a machine, it's enough to do ten series of ten shots. The statistics show a remarkable result: the machine reached an average of 91%. Of course, we expected 100%. A machine should produce exactly the same shot over and over again. There was no wind at all, we used the same ball each time, and the perfect machine scored a lower average than 16 of the 25 players we've seen this afternoon.
Doc has an explanation: "This is what I was hoping for. If a machine can't reproduce the perfect shot, how can a man do better? As we've seen in our earlier experiment with you, a human: the results depend more on luck than on skills. Even with the perfect skills of the machine, some mystical «Deus ex machina»-force helps the human to beat the machine. What's the difference between your best and your worst shot? Motivation? A mental trick? The power to visualise success? Call it Luck, if you like. My experience, my senses and my gut feeling tell me 'something' manipulates this magic Luck-factor. I suspect that 'something' is G.O.D., the dope that turns hopeless losers into lucky winners. When you're playing with G.O.D., you just can't lose."
"But it's not scientific yet. We must repeat the experiment infinite times.", Tong Au says.
"We're not investigating to publish the results in a scientific magazine. This is a private investigation, to support my theory about the effect of G.O.D. The drug would not produce the desired effect if it would only improve our physics. Even the perfect body of the Golden Shoe can't match the score of several of our human players. G.O.D. obviously enhances the player's mental qualities; it turns him into a superhuman."
With all that scientific data flowing around, I lose control: "I understand most of it, Doc, but one thing is still a mystery to me: how can you be sure you'll win money with your bet? Our experiments proved that winning is just a matter of good luck against bad luck, with a little bending of the odds according to the skills and quality of the players. This whole Free Kick Goal Scoring is nothing else but a World Championship Dice Throwing with a ball. How can you, scientifically, predict good luck?"
Doc's mysterious smile promises me: "Wait until after the Final. I haven't won yet…"
* * *
Tonight, the odds are in Doc's favour. The Final Five start the show at 20:00 and we have the best place available: the VIP section in the centre of the stadium. The stakes are high: everyone wants to win the first title of the first event of the first European Games ever; everybody wants to write his name on the first page of this newly opened history book.
The game commences, for the usual millionaire's fee plus expenses. Only Pjanovic misses his first of five penalty shots. The other four shoot a perfect score. After finishing the second and third series, we find Eriksen and Ronaldo with both 25 points on top of the list, Pirlo two points behind them, and Gerrard and Pjanovic with distance on place four and five. Series four shows three hits for every player. The final five shots from the circle will be decisive.
Things are looking good for Doc. His favourite leads his predicted pack. My only remaining player, Pjanovic, is last. I try to discourage him: "Pjanovic scored four out of five in Round One from this spot. If he does that again, and if the others fail, he can still win."
Doc peeks in a little green notebook that he keeps hidden in the inner pocket of his white coat.
"Confidential information? Or is that your diary?", I ask.
"This is my investigation, not some public inquiry.", Doc answers.
All players miss the first shot. Pjanovic misses the second one, Steven Gerrard and Andrea Pirlo score, Eriksen hits the post and Ronald's shot goes wide. On the third attempt, Pjanovic scores but stays still one point behind Gerrard, who misses, and 12 points behind Pirlo, who scores again. Eriksen scores too and Ronaldo's shot goes wide again.
"Your man is not going to make it. He has to score the final two and the others should miss.", I say to Doc.
"Your man is last and even if he scores his two, he can't win. Wait and see…", Doc replies with a mysterious smile.
The impossible happens: Ronaldo scores the last two shots and all the others miss. Doc's bet for the top five is correct for the first three, but Pjanovic ended fifth and Gerrard ended fourth, while Doc predicted them the other way around.
"You've just lost three million euros, Doc. I thought you would win. You said that science made sure you couldn't lose.", I say.
Doc barks a joyless laugh-out-loud and asks his colleague, who sits on the other side of him: "Tong Au, who is the world's best football player of all times?"
Tong Au doubles his smile: "Cristiano Ronaldo!"
"And who has won tonight's final of Free Kick Goal Scoring?"
"Cristiano Ronaldo!"
"Take off your white coat, Tong Au, and show my friend Bugs what you're wearing under it."
Tong Au takes off his coat and shows, with a grin, the number 7 and the name Ronaldo on his back.
"Now take off your trousers and show my friend Bugs here what you're wearing instead of underwear."
Tong Au drops his trousers and shows his Real Madrid shorts with number 7.
Doc lowers his voice and explains, finally, his little trick to me: "Tong Au is a BIG fan of Ronaldo. He was so convinced of Ronaldo's victory that he offered me a bet: he would pay me 2.000 euro if Ronaldo wouldn't win and I should pay him 2.000 euro if Ronaldo did win. That's 1:1 while the bookmakers give me 1:5 on the same odds.
» So I've bet 1.000 euros on Ronaldo with Bet To Win, to make sure I'd recoup the money in case I would lose my bet with Tong Au. I've bet the other 1.000 euros on a top-five with Ronaldo at first place, just for fun. If any other player would have won, Tong Au would have paid me the 2.000 euros I lost on my bet with Bet To Win. But Ronaldo did win, so I just lost 2.000 euros to Tong Au, but I also made a 5.000 euros profit on my 1.000 euros bet with Bet To Win on the winner, plus a 1:6million chance to become a millionaire. I just couldn't lose. All I had to do was learn the lesson the bookmakers taught me: try to find enough fools who want to lose their money, and make sure the odds are always in your favour.
» I didn't lose 3 million. I never expected to win those 3 million. I've won 5.000 euros minus the 2.000 I'll pay to Tong Au. That's worth a day's work. Luck has nothing to do with betting. Now go checking out the report, as I instructed."
* * *
After the medal ceremony, I wait for the players in the corridor between the field and the mixed zone, doing a few rehearsals on putting authority in my voice: "Doping control. Please be so kind to spit in the plastic bag with your name on it. Put one of your fingers into the pincher with your name, for a tiny drop of blood, please."
In my white coat with the Bet To Win logo on the breast pocket, I hope to show enough dominance to make the superstars do what I ask.
Pjanovic is the first to enter. He spits in the bag and asks: "What's the blood sample for?"
I try to look mean and mysterious: "I'm a vampire. I make blutwurst and eat you for dinner… No, it's to check if you used doping. Bet To Win would save a million euros if you did. It's in the contract, as you know."
Pjanovic surprises me with his next question: "And how are you going to pay me the 30.000?"
"Which 30.000?"
"The 30.000 you promised me for not ending fourth. You called me on the phone this afternoon, telling me there was a registered bet of 1.000 euros, predicting the Final Five. Bet To Win didn't want the risk to have a winner. Why did you think I missed the first penalty and made sure I stayed behind Gerrard all the time? I have the highest average on free kicks of all the European competitions, but this game depends so much on good luck… For 30K, I didn't want to take the risk of winning. I prefer the money in cash. Can you arrange it?"
Treachery and treason, there was always an excuse for it, but now I find the reason, I really can't get used to it.
"As far as I know, they'll send a courier with an envelope to your hotel room tonight."
"I don't stay at the hotel. I have a game tomorrow. My private plane to Turin leaves in two hours."
"I'll make sure the stewardess will give you the envelope when you're in the tax-free zone."
"Thanks."