Chereads / RUSSIA INVASION TO UKRAINE / Chapter 4 - Invasion and resistance

Chapter 4 - Invasion and resistance

The invasion began at dawn of 24 February,[167] with infantry divisions and armoured and air support in Eastern Ukraine, and dozens of missile attacks across both Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine.[177][178] The first fighting took place in Luhansk Oblast near Milove village on the border with Russia at 3:40 am Kyiv time.[179] The main infantry and tank attacks were launched in four spearhead incursions, creating a northern front launched towards Kyiv, a southern front originating in Crimea, a south-eastern front launched at the cities of Luhansk and Donbas, and an eastern front.[42][43] Dozens of missile strikes across Ukraine reached as far west as Lviv.[180][181] Wagner Group mercenaries and Chechen forces reportedly made several attempts to assassinate Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian government said these efforts were thwarted by anti-war officials in Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), who shared intelligence of the plans.[182]

On 25 March, the Russian Defence Ministry said the "first stage" of what they called the "military operation in Ukraine" was generally complete, that the Ukrainian military forces had suffered serious losses, and the Russian military would now concentrate on the "liberation of Donbas".[183][184] The "first stage" of the invasion was conducted on four fronts[185][186] including one towards western Kyiv from Belarus, conducted by the Russian Eastern Military District, comprising the 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies. A second axis deployed towards eastern Kyiv from Russia by the Central Military District (north-eastern front), comprised the 41st Combined Arms Army and 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army. A third axis deployed towards Kharkiv by the Western Military District (eastern front), with the 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Combined Arms Army. A fourth, southern, front originating in occupied Crimea and Russia's Rostov oblast with an eastern axis towards Odesa and a western area of operations toward Mariupol, by the Southern Military District, including the 58th, 49th, and 8th Combined Arms Army, the latter also commanding the 1st and 2nd Army Corps of the Russian separatist forces in Donbas[187]

By 7 April, Russian troops deployed to the northern front by the Russian Eastern Military District pulled back from the Kyiv offensive, apparently to resupply and then redeploy to the Donbas region to reinforce the renewed invasion of south-eastern Ukraine. The north-eastern front, including the Central Military District, was similarly withdrawn for resupply and redeployment to south-eastern Ukraine.[187][188] By 8 April, General Alexander Dvornikov was placed in charge of military operations during the invasion.[189] On 18 April, retired Lieutenant General Douglas Lute, the former US ambassador to NATO, reported in a PBS NewsHour interview that Russia had repositioned its troops to initiate a new assault on Eastern Ukraine which would be limited to Russia's original deployment of 150,000 to 190,000 troops for the invasion, though the troops were being well supplied from adequate weapon stockpiles in Russia. For Lute, this contrasted sharply with the vast size of the Ukrainian conscription of all-male Ukrainian citizens between 16 and 60 years of age, but without adequate weapons in Ukraine's highly limited stockpiles of weapons.[190] On 26 April, delegates of the US and 40 allied nations met at Ramstein Air Base in Germany to discuss forming a coalition to provide economic support and military supplies and refitting to Ukraine.[191] Following Putin's Victory Day speech in early May, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said no short term resolution to the invasion should be expected.[192]

Russian forces improved their focus on protecting their supply lines by advancing more slowly, and more methodically. They also benefited from centralising command under General Dvornikov.[193] Ukraine's reliance on Western-supplied equipment constrained it, as Western countries feared that Ukraine would use it to strike targets in Russia.[194] Military experts disagree on the future of the conflict; some have suggested trading territory for peace,[195] while others believe that Ukraine can sustain their resistance to the invasion, due to the Russian losses.[196] On 26 May 2022, the Conflict Intelligence Team, citing Russian soldiers, reported that Colonel General Gennady Zhidko had been put in charge of Russian forces during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, replacing Army General Dvornikov.[197][198] By 30 May, disparities between Russian and Ukrainian artillery were apparent. Russian artillery had a longer range, for example.[199] In response to Biden's indication that enhanced artillery would be provided to Ukraine, Putin indicated that Russian would expand its invasion front to include new cities in Ukraine and in apparent retribution ordered a missile strike against Kyiv on 6 June after not directly attacking the city for several weeks.[200] On 10 June 2022, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence, stated during the Severodonetsk campaign that the frontlines were where the future of the invasion would be decided: "This is an artillery war now, and we are losing in terms of artillery. Everything now depends on what [the west] gives us. Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces. Our western partners have given us about 10% of what they have."[201]

On 29 June, Reuters reported that Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, updating U.S. intelligence assessment of the Russian invasion, said that U.S. intelligence agencies agree that the invasion will continue "for an extended period of time... In short, the picture remains pretty grim and Russia's attitude toward the West is hardening."[202] On 5 July, BBC reported that extensive destruction by the Russian invasion would cause immense financial damage to Ukraine's reconstruction economy stating: "Ukraine needs $750bn for a recovery plan and Russian oligarchs should contribute to the cost, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has told a reconstruction conference in Switzerland