January 15th, 2023. Outskirts of Amsterdam.
While the focal points of the Belgian advance were concentrated on the central front leading to Amsterdam and the eastern front along the Dutch-German border, the relentless push continued in other significant theaters. Rotterdam, standing as the Netherlands' second-largest city, found itself besieged by Belgian forces for a duration surpassing that of Utrecht. The initial success in defending the city is largely due to its medium-priority status in the eyes of the invaders and the strategic advantage offered by the northern section, bolstered by the natural barrier of the Rhine River. However, this is likely to change in the coming days.
The Battle for Europe's Gateway unfolded with profound implications for European commerce, given Rotterdam's pivotal role as a crucial shipping route for German industrial goods originating from the Rhineland. Economists, foreseeing the impending rush for the remaining stock of German goods, predicted a substantial stock market crash for companies relying on the Rhine for transport. These ramifications, at least until alternative supply routes can be established, fueled hopes among the Dutch populace and their sympathizers. They are hoping that these economic aftershocks might galvanize the German and French governments into taking more assertive measures in the conflict, quashing any aspirations for a Belgian triumph. Whether this optimism would translate into concrete action remains uncertain on the geopolitical stage.
With Utrecht firmly under their control, Belgian forces now redirect their unwavering focus towards the strategic seizure of the Randstad, encompassing the critical urban centers of The Hague, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam. Despite its small size, the Randstad houses nearly half of the Dutch population, making it a paramount objective for the advancing invaders. The success of their attack hinges on strategic axes, and dominance in these key pathways would secure a decisive victory, and cripple the Dutch state's ability to mount a defense.
The A1-A2 axis spearheads the northern advancement from Utrecht, one of the objectives being to target the suburbs of Amsterdam. However, the primary goal is to sever the Randstad from Flevoland, effectively cleaving the Netherlands into two distinct halves. Although Flevoland has been largely ignored by the Belgian High Command, isolating the region will force the defenders to eventually surrender once the Dutch state effectively ceases to exist; the resources that could be spent on this region can be used far more efficiently elsewhere.
In a less creatively named approach, the westward axis extends to the west of Utrecht, and it stands as the focal point for the bulk of Belgian troops. Progressing along the A12 highway, this force strategically divides into three main contingents: the first pursues the A12 route, directing its thrust towards The Hague; the second navigates the A20, launching a surprise assault on the defenders of Rotterdam from the rear. Perhaps most strategically significant, another contingent, supported by a formidable cadre of exo-soldiers, rapidly advances along the N11 freeway, aiming to sever the vital link between The Hague and Amsterdam. The success of these coordinated maneuvers holds the key to Belgian supremacy in the region.
At its core, this offensive is strategically designed to systematically dismantle the Dutch state's capacity to orchestrate any form of meaningful resistance, thereby compelling a swift capitulation. The overarching objective is to minimize engagement in the sprawling urban centers, opting for strategic avenues that facilitate a rapid collapse of the Dutch defense apparatus. If these measures prove insufficient, the offensive blueprint strategically positions itself for the encirclement of Amsterdam, paving the way for a more seamless capture of the remaining territories within the Randstad.
In tandem with the military maneuvers, Belgian intelligence forces have initiated discreet communications with a spectrum of Dutch government officials, ranging from the highest echelons of the cabinet to the seemingly inconspicuous civil servants. The proposition presented to all is one of collaboration and surrender, offering the prospect of retaining their positions within the soon-to-be-established Belgian provinces. While the communication could have been dispatched earlier in the conflict, the deliberate timing aimed to allow a sense of despair to take root within the hearts of the Dutch officials, compelling even the most optimistic among them to contemplate and, perhaps, accept this merciful alternative.
Simultaneously, in the eastern theater, the relentless advance persists unabated as divisions carve their way toward the strategically vital city of Groningen. The Dutch forces stationed in this region find themselves woefully outnumbered and outgunned, succumbing to the overwhelming might of the Belgian onslaught. Despite constituting the largest portion of the Dutch landmass, the east has been the least fortified and defended. This strategic neglect can largely be attributed to its lower population density and relatively flat terrain, providing an open invitation for Belgian tanks to effortlessly traverse and dominate the landscape. The ease with which the invader sweeps through this region mirrors a stroll in a park or a simple roadside picnic, as many soldiers have described it.
The significance of Groningen and the eastern region cannot be overstated, as it plays a pivotal role in the broader strategic landscape. The A7 highway, traversing through Groningen and linking the Northern Netherlands, emerges as a potential corridor for German troops to swiftly advance toward Amsterdam in the event of a German intervention. If Belgium could secure control over all Dutch territories up to Friesland, it would not only alleviate the overextension of their forces but also enable them to consolidate and prepare for a formidable presence along the German border.
While Belgium may appear poised to defend against potential moves by Germany or France, the reality is more nuanced. Although extensive preparations have been made, the situation is still far from ideal. The current doctrine followed by Belgian forces would necessitate a complete overhaul, giving way to a much more aggressive and ruthless strategy to confront the challenges that an intervention might pose.
To preemptively mitigate the risk of a hostile reaction from Germany and France, Belgium has strategically dispatched saboteurs and spies into these two European powerhouses. Substantial funding has also been allocated to support anti-war or even pro-Belgian organizations within these nations. Interestingly, this preemptive effort appears somewhat superfluous, given the surprisingly subdued response from Germany, France, and the international community at large to Belgian aggression over the past two weeks.
Although it is uncertain whether the efficacy of their clandestine operations had played the pivotal role in swaying public opinion or whether there had been a miscalculation in assessing the extent to which other nations are willing to intervene for causes beyond their own citizens and immediate interests. Regardless, it has all benefited them in the end.
Meanwhile, on another front, the entirety of the lands south of the Waal River, the primary distributary branch of the river Rhine coursing through the Netherlands, now lies under Belgian occupation. The few pockets of resistance in this vast territory, constituting approximately one-third of Belgium's total size, have been nearly eradicated.
Rapid administrative changes have been implemented, with the appointment of new officials, including both collaborators and former Dutch officials, are being tasked with efficiently integrating the region and restoring its economic vitality. In the short term, the focus is on reconstructing the areas devastated by the invasion and fostering trust among the local population in the new governing body. Despite appearing secondary to the ongoing war, the successful integration of conquered territories is paramount for Belgium. Without it, their victory could translate into large swaths of rebellious and unproductive land, undermining any potential gains they would have made.
Without any doubts, the inevitable collapse of the Netherlands is on the horizon. The once vibrant and resilient country now finds itself teetering on the brink of surrender. The threads holding onto sovereignty are rapidly unraveling, and the impending fall is cast in the shadow of unavoidable defeat. The resilience of the Dutch forces and the valiant efforts of those who resist only serve as brief sparks in the encroaching darkness of an imminent downfall.