Chereads / Thinking Mind general knowledge Morn kuntea +meng lu / Chapter 16 - Kite in square part 5

Chapter 16 - Kite in square part 5

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Not all empirical study of politics involves the methodology of social science. Although Aristotle's classification of city-states had an empirical component, he did not develop or test hypotheses. This is not surprising: the scientific method as we know it was developed about 400 years ago though the writings of Francis Bacon (1561-1626) and others, and only spread to the social sciences until the 1800s. This scientific method became a major part of the political science mainstream well into the 20th Century. The term "descriptive analysis" remains an essential part of the discipline.What are the important differences between political science social science? They are listed below, and summarised in Table 'Characteristics of research fields'. Social science is analytic. It breaks down problems into relatively small components for study. Descriptive analysis, used in political science, is more holistic, more likely to focus on the big picture. Where social science usually looks for typical patterns in human behavior, descriptive analysis in political science emphasizes unique behaviour. A social science research project might involve survey research, in which a sample of a larger population is interviewed in order to find out how and why people in the population think and act. A descriptive study in political science, on the other hand, might consist of a biography of a leader who is "one of a kind." In order to be as precise as possible in carrying out analysis, social science tends to pay a great deal of attention to questions of methodology – great care is taken to obtain accurate measures and conduct careful analysis. This in turn has made the social sciences much more quantitative. While the desire for precision is admirable, critics have a point when they argue that at times this quest leads political scientists to focus on the most readily operationalised aspects of a question, rather than on those aspects that are most important. Political Theory helps us better understand the concepts that have shaped our politics, including freedom, equality, individuality, democracy and justice. Importantly, Political Theory is the part of Political Science that explores what a better political world would look like and how we can create it.

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characteristics of political economy analysis

According to Collinson (ed) (2003): Political economy analysis is concerned with the interaction of political and economic processes within a society: the distribution of power and wealth between different groups and individuals, and the processes that create, sustain and transform these relationships over time.' As the name suggests, political economy is concerned with how political forces influence the economy and economic outcomes. However, the interactions run both ways and political economy is interested in both. Thus, it is economic activity that generates the resources that are required to sustain political activity, for example, election campaign expenses. Moreover, whilst policy might lead to a certain economic activity prospering, this success in itself can generate a political constituency with an interest in maintaining the economic activity, because a sizeable number of people now benefit from it.

As was noted above, the distribution of benefits from economic activity tends to be a neglected aspect of much pure economic analysis. However, within political economy analysis it takes centre stage. Political economists are very interested in who gains and who loses from a particular policy. This is likely to provide important clues as to which groups or individuals support the continuation of the policy, as well as to which groups might be drawn into a coalition seeking to change it.

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Using economic tools to examine political phenomena. Another characteristic of political economy analysis is that it uses economic tools to examine political phenomena. As in economics, a characteristic of political economy analysis is the assumption that individual (political) agents are both self-seeking and rational. Economics examines how rational individuals use the resources at their disposal (capital, labour, land etc) to maximise some utility function (for example, maximising profits, income or consumption) by producing goods and services and participating in markets. In a similar vein, political economy examines how such individuals maximise their utility by participating in political activity. Again they have capital and labour (time) at their disposal and they can use these to influence political processes so as to generate policy outcomes that benefit them (most notably, by generating rents for them). DFID (2009) thus sees political behaviour as being shaped by:

* Interests: those with the ability to influence policy do so in such a way as to further their own economic and/or political interests. Those outside of government may be particularly concerned with economic outcomes. Those inside government might have their own private economic interests, as earlier discussions highlighted. However, they also have political interests, most obviously to retain their positions of power.

* Ideas: ideology remains an important driver of policy, alongside direct economic or political interests. Where individuals are constrained by bounded rationality, such that they cannot reliably assess all the possible outcomes from all the different (policy or voting) choices open to them, ideology gives them a (more or less accurate) guide as to what they should do in order to remain consistent with their basic beliefs and values in life. Incorporating ideas or ideology into political economy models also allows for the fact that some political action is motivated by factors other than pure self-interest. Some people do genuinely enter politics because they want to make the world a better place, although whether that remains their guiding motivation throughout their political career is another question!

* Institutions: as explained by North (1990), institutions are the formal or informal 'rules of the game' that structure human behaviour. Generally, there are formal political rules, including a constitution, that define matters such as how leaders are chosen and how a new policy can be introduced. In practice, informal norms and ways of doing things might be as influential in shaping actual outcomes. All these rules help to structure the incentives facing political actors.

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Levels and choices

DFID (2009) describe tools of political economy analysis that are relevant to three levels:

* Macro-level or country analysis: at this level one can understand how the big decisions, for example, with respect to the selection of political leaders or the allocation of budgets, are made. One would expect the most powerful interest groups – whether they be industrial, ethnic or otherwise – to be visible at this level. Macro analysis might also consider how the highest level political institutions function: what are the rules of the game facing top political players? One might also expect a country's history to shape prevailing ideologies and ideas about how things should work and why.

* Sector-level analysis: this examines in more depth the forces shaping policy formation and decision-making at the level of an individual sector or industry. The more important and prominent the sector is within the national economy, the greater one would expect the influence of national level forces to be over decision-making within the sector. However, the possibilities facing all sectors are to some extent constrained by the broader macro context, including budget, macro-economic policy etc. Meanwhile, one would expect actors who do not feature in high-level political debates and events nevertheless to exert influence over outcomes in their particular sector. Moreover, sectoral and local rules will be critical to outcomes and hence fiercely contested by the relevant players.

* Problem-driven analysis: this is a highly practical approach that starts from a particular problem that needs solving and proceeds to examine all the forces (actors and interests, ideas, institutions) that have a bearing on it. According to DFID (2009) the World Bank developed this approach to understand situations where policy reforms that were desirable from a growth or poverty reduction perspective seemed to be continually blocked.

By way of illustration, suggests generic questions that a sector-level political economy analysis might investigate. Note that these questions reflect the particular interests of an aid donor in a given sector.

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Sample questions for conducting sector-level political economy analysis

'Roles and responsibilities: Who are the key stakeholders in the sector? What are the formal/informal roles and mandates of different players? What is the balance between central/local authorities in provision of services? Ownership structure and financing: what is the balance between public and private ownership? How is the sector financed (e.g. public-private partnerships, user fees, taxes, donor support)? Power relations: to what extent is power vested in the hands of specific individuals/groups? How do different interest groups outside government (e.g. private sector, NGOs, consumer groups, the media) seek to influence policy? Historical legacies: what is the past history of the sector, including previous reform initiatives? How does this influence current stakeholder perceptions? Corruption and rent-seeking: Is there significant corruption and rent-seeking in the sector? Where is this most prevalent (e.g. at point of delivery, procurement, allocation of jobs)? Who benefits most from this? How is patronage being used? Service delivery: who are the primary beneficiaries of service delivery? Are particular social, regional or ethnic groups included/excluded? Are subsidies provided and which groups benefit most from these? Ideologies and values: what are the dominant ideologies and values which shape views around the sector? To what extent may these serve to constrain change? Decision-making: How are decisions made within the sector? Who is party to these decision-making processes? Implementation issues: Once made, are decisions implemented? Where are the key bottlenecks in the system? Is failure to implement due to lack of capacity or other political economy reasons? Potential for reform: Who are likely to be the "winners" and "losers" from particular reforms? Are there any key reform champions within the sector? Who is likely to resist reforms and why? Are there "second-best" reforms which might overcome this opposition?'

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Political future

Global world politics in the 2021s to the future

Politics in the Twentieth Century was dominated by a single question: how much of our collective life should be determined by the state, and what should be left to the market and civil society? Now the debate is different: to what extent should our lives be directed and controlled by powerful digital systems - and on what terms? Digital technologies - from artificial intelligence to blockchain, from robotics to virtual reality - are transforming the way we live together. Those who control the most powerful technologies are increasingly able to control the rest of us. As time goes on, these powerful entities - usually big tech firms and the state - will set the limits of our liberty, decreeing what may be done and what is forbidden. Their algorithms will determine vital questions of social justice. In their hands, democracy will flourish or decay. A landmark work of political theory, Future Politics challenges readers to rethink what it means to be free or equal, what it means to have power or property, and what it means for a political system to be just or democratic. A powerful mixture of hope and fear accompanies the start of 2021 in most countries of the world. Scientists have created several vaccines against a disease that didn't even have a name at that time last year. But many countries, including the UK and the US, are still going through the deadliest period of the pandemic. The shadow of Covid will not begin to rise, even in the richest countries, for months. Britain was the first to approve a vaccine and secure large supplies, but Boris Johnson's suggestion that life could return to normal by Easter is widely viewed as optimistic. Other countries, especially in the south, face a long wait to get vaccines and help pay for them. The reconstruction of economies shattered by the Covid everywhere will be slow; even countries that have managed to contain it have taken a hit, from Vietnam to New Zealand. But when the immediate threat is over, the world will face other major challenges that in a normal year would have made the headlines. The climate crisis is perhaps the most urgent - but not always seen as such by politicians. Forest fires and extreme weather have drawn attention to the costs of a warming world and the narrowing of the window to reduce emissions and prevent catastrophic global warming. In November, world leaders are due to meet in Glasgow for a key summit. As it has been delayed for a year due to the pandemic, pressure is mounting for them to agree to further milestones. Greener growth is a priority for new US President Joe Biden, once he delivers on his first campaign pledge to defeat Covid. Its ability to influence this issue and others will be determined in large part by special elections for the two Georgian Senate seats on January 5. The control of the Senate depends on the results. Biden must also consider how to rebuild his country's reputation abroad, after Donald Trump's aggressive "America First" project saw him withdraw from international obligations and attack multilateral institutions such as NATO ties with Beijing, which quickly deteriorated under Trump, should also be given special attention. After acting quickly to contain the coronavirus, China has already returned to growth, and a trade deal with the EU at the end of December is a reminder of how attractive its economy remains to global investors. But there is still resentment in many countries over China's handling of the early days of the pandemic and an apparent reluctance to allow an independent international investigation into the origins of Covid-19.

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The country's communist leaders have also come under increased scrutiny for human rights violations, from a sweeping security law used to crush Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement, to internment camps. for Muslim minorities in the far west of Xinjiang province. By the end of his term, Trump had turned decades of politics upside down, taking a hard line against Beijing on trade and diplomatic issues, including bolstering military and political support for Taiwan. Biden should seek a less confrontational approach. With Trump's departure, 2021 will also see tests for other strong populist men. Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu will face his fourth general election in two years as corruption cases continue. Brazilian Jair Bolsonaro is entering the third of a four-year term, but when pandemic payments end his popularity may plummet. Below, our correspondents around the world take a closer look at what 2021 could hold in store. Emma Graham-Harrison. United States: a return to reality? Joe Biden faces the most intimidating and crowded inbox of any new US president since World War II when he takes office on January 20. The coronavirus pandemic has killed more than 346,000 Americans. The economy is grappling with an unemployment rate of 6.7% and thousands of people lining up at food banks. The demands for racial equity and justice are more urgent.

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Russia is suspected of the biggest cyber attack ever against the US government. America is divided, its fragile democracy needs repairs. And the climate crisis calls for leadership. Biden, at 78 years old the oldest American president ever elected, has made it clear that taming Covid-19 is the No.1 priority. America, shaken by a historic failure of Donald Trump's leadership, has 4% of the world's population but 19% of deaths worldwide and more than 100,000 people hospitalized. Biden recently warned that the "darkest days" of the pandemic battle "are ahead of us, not behind us." The former vice president has vowed to sign an executive order the day he is sworn in to require people to wear masks on buses and trains crossing state lines and in federal government buildings. It also aims to reopen most schools in its first 100 days. And he set a target of 100 million vaccinations over the same period. But one of Biden's challenges is winning over those who fear the vaccine is dangerous, as well as conspiracy theorists determined to sow suspicion of him. Indeed, the disinformation pandemic in the United States may prove to be even more contagious and tenacious than the coronavirus if a certain former president continues to tweet on the sidelines, and if the right-wing media continue to amplify it. In this scenario, what started as "alternative facts" at the start of the Trump administration could turn into "alternate realities" under Biden, fueling hyperpartisanship in Washington and making the country almost ungovernable.

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Europe: we are moving cautiously: with Brexit done and dusted off largely to the satisfaction of the EU, the Covid vaccination underway and a friendlier - and predictable - US president in the White House, 2021 should by right be an easier year for Europe. But its own internal struggles, as well as continued global geopolitical developments that predate the 2020 crises, appear likely to make this year difficult for the bloc to negotiate as well. The rift between many Western member states and the governments of Poland and Hungary continues to widen, with the 2020 row over Brussels' attempts to tie the EU budget to respect for the rule of law exposing deep cultural differences on fundamental European issues such as immigration and liberal values. Meanwhile, Germany, along with France, the EU's economic and political powerhouse, is likely to be concerned for much of the coming year over Angela Merkel's departure and the choice of her successor to Chancellor, with elections slated for September and possibly months of coalition talks thereafter. The Netherlands, an increasingly influential player in the EU, especially after the UK's departure, also have parliamentary elections in 2021. In both countries, the Eurosceptic far-right - effectively put in the spotlight.

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spread by the coronavirus pandemic for much of 2020 - could play an important role as the economic crisis replaces health crisis. Neither the AfD in Germany nor Geert Wilders' Freedom Party seem likely to end up in government - but they may well influence the policies of more traditional rivals seeking to capture far-right votes, potentially influencing the future dynamic in Brussels. Overseas, relations with two increasingly thorny close neighbors, Russia and Turkey, do not seem set to soften either, with neither Vladimir Putin nor Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seeking to soften their anti-EU stance. . And with a more integrated European foreign policy - despite much talk about "European strategic autonomy" - still a long way off, the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China will force Europe to take a delicate path between principle and self-interest. . Add to this the need - in the aftermath of a pandemic - to take unpopular measures to tackle the climate crisis; a contested desire for a common European defense and security policy; and growing transatlantic tensions over the EU's plans to curb the excesses of America's tech giants, and 2021 doesn't seem much easier for Europe than 2020.

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Africa: New Voices: From the first weeks, 2021 in Africa is going to be a year of intense politics and loud protests as new voices of young people and dissatisfied people across the continent fight to be heard, new leaders seek to assert themselves and to assert themselves those trying to cling to power. There are huge problems - the devastating impact of Covid on communities and economies, growing insecurity in many regions and environmental crises - and big questions are being asked by hundreds of millions of young people about their future. Many analysts have seen 2020 as a year in which democracy has suffered, with incumbents in countries ranging from Tanzania to Guinea using a mix of security services, populist slogans and new laws to muzzle dissent. This year, the same tactics could ultimately fail to silence loud opposition groups - or could usher in a new period of repression. Later this month, a presidential election in Uganda will pit a 76-year-old veteran politician against a 38-year-old former reggae singer. Most analysts expect Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, to win against the charismatic Bobi Wine, but, with dozens dead already after police gun down opposition supporters and a certain number of tricks used to give the president an overwhelming advantage, there will be deep questions about the legitimacy of any victory. Wine draws its support from young people and city dwellers - two of the fastest growing constituencies across Africa - and represents a new generation of leaders calling for an end to endless elections won by ruling parties or leaders, corruption and the policy of patronage.

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Ethiopia is expected to go to the polls later this year to elect a new parliament. Here, in the second most populous state on the continent, the dynamics are different. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed represents this new generation of forward-looking leaders. The 44-year-old Nobel laureate has spearheaded efforts to sideline aging leaders who had been in charge for 30 years and forced into reform. But in November, Abiy launched a bloody military campaign against the rest of the hardline who resisted his efforts to rebuild the nation. Will the postponement of the legislative elections strengthen his reformist zeal? Or reinforce what critics say about its authoritarian tendencies? The coming year will tell.

China: Back in the Game: China is starting the year with a social and economic rebound from the virus outbreak, but with considerably poorer international relations and a world community much less reluctant to act against it. Last year got off to a bad start, with Beijing's attempts to cover up the coronavirus outbreak causing reputational damage that has not been repaired by subsequent attempts to rebuild bridges with masks, PPE and vaccines. The World Health Organization is preparing to send an investigative team to Wuhan in early 2021, urged by countries like Australia to be "robust" in its investigations.

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Growing evidence suggests that the government will continue its authoritarian measures against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet, and expansionist activities in border areas. Large numbers of people are expected to leave Hong Kong to resettle or seek asylum in the UK, Europe, Australia and Taiwan, where many have already fled. A dozen people arrested as they tried to flee were put on trial last month. Regional neighbors will monitor the continued military build-up and threats against the disputed South China Sea islands and Taiwan. Further on, there has been no resolution of diplomatic and trade disputes with Australia, the UK, Canada and the US. Biden promises to stay tough on China, albeit without Trump's unpredictable and publicly hostile diplomacy, but there is no sense that China is backing down, even in the face of sanctions and international stigma. Domestically, China has ambitious emissions targets to work on and will set its agenda with the adoption of its 14th five-year plan in the spring. The culture-shaping affairs will continue, including an account with the Chinese #MeToo movement and Jack Ma's mastery of Alibaba, who dared to become powerful outside the party system.

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Israel: Bibi to the rescue: Israel set to hold its fourth general election in two years as a protracted political crisis continues through 2021. Despite repeated attempts, parliamentarians have been unable to form stable governments, largely because of hatred, mistrust, but also the glorification of one man: Benjamin Netanyahu. The 71-year-old prime minister, who has dominated Israeli politics since the mid-1990s, has repeatedly succeeded in preventing his rivals from taking his seat. Now that Israel's traditional opposition has been largely wiped out, Netanyahu faces what could be an even more perilous threat from a group of former allies who largely share his nationalist and right-wing ideology. Naftali Bennett, a former far-right leader of the Israeli settler movement who worked in governments led by Netanyahu, heads the Yamina party and seeks to become the next prime minister. Meanwhile, former Netanyahu protege Gideon Saar broke ranks last month to create the New Hope party. Avigdor Lieberman, once a lieutenant of Netanyahu and infamous for his anti-Arab views, is also seeking to dethrone the Israeli leader, known locally as "King Bibi".

What seems increasingly certain is that whoever heads Israel's next government will continue to take a hard line against the continued occupation. While a new US administration offers the prospect of further negotiations, few predict a significant change in the status quo.Polls show Netanyahu's Likud party could yet emerge as the largest faction in parliament, and with the country of 9 million people ramping up mass vaccinations, the prime minister hopes that by the time of the March elections, he will be considered the savior of the nation. However, his reputation could deteriorate further in February, when witnesses are scheduled to testify in his corruption trial. While Netanyahu denies the charges, he faces three separate cases, which include charges of bribery and fraud.

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Latin America: pivotal moments: Latin America's most polarizing leader, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, faces a difficult year in 2021 - the third of his four-year term - and will do so without the support of his most important foreign ally, Donald Trump.

The far-right renegade has so far managed to dodge responsibility for Brazil's disastrous response to the Covid-19 epidemic, which has killed more than 195,000 Brazilians, while rocking a succession of scandals involving his family . Polls show Bolsonaro still enjoys the approval of around 37% of the electorate - largely attributed to emergency coronavirus payments to tens of millions of citizens. But those payments stop in January, with many observers convinced that serious economic, political and social turmoil awaits us, as public anger mounts.

"The pandemic is truly coming to an end," Bolsonaro said ahead of Christmas, as the number of coronavirus infections and hospital admissions rose again. The president's problems may be just beginning. Venezuela's humanitarian and economic crisis will also enter a new chapter in 2021, as Joe Biden enters the White House and turns away from Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign. Venezuela's authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro has resisted the two-year crusade and Biden is certain to seek new, less confrontational solutions for what advisers would see as his main diplomatic challenge in the Western Hemisphere. The nature of these solutions remains unclear - although negotiating with Hugo Chávez's successor to secure free and fair elections appears to be the plan. In the short term, the historic exodus of impoverished Venezuelan citizens - which has already deprived the South American country of more than 5 million people - will continue, as the coronavirus crisis pushes Venezuela deeper into hunger and destitution. For now, Maduro appears firmly in control, his leadership seemingly bolstered by the botched effort to overthrow him. But in a country as fractured and unstable as Venezuela, maybe even he wouldn't want to predict where his year might end.

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India: Modi Steps On: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi enters 2021 without resolving what many describe as his biggest political challenge yet: the farmer protests, in which thousands of people spent weeks camping on the roads around Delhi, demanding that new agricultural laws be repealed. Discussions between the farmers and Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata (BJP) party are currently deadlocked, but this is the first time a civil backlash has brought the government to the negotiating table. Yet even with the agricultural unrest, Modi's popularity rating remains untouchable, consistently staying above 70%, paving the way for his government to continue implementing its Hindu nationalist agenda with increasing fervor in 2021, and to start the campaign for an electoral victory of 2024..

Violence against Muslims, perpetrated by local extremist Hindu nationalist groups, continues to increase; Just days before the new year, a mosque in Madhya Pradesh state was vandalized by a right-wing mob. With India's main opposition party, the Indian National Congress seen as weak, rudderless and divided by infighting, little remains to stand in the way of Modi's Hindu nationalist agenda which is definitely reshaping India. The pandemic has allowed Modi's government to tighten its authoritarian grip, including through the arrests and harassment of critics and government activists, and this crackdown on civil society is expected to continue, if not intensify, until in 2021. Of the 154 journalists in India who have been arrested, detained or questioned in the past decade, 40% of these cases occurred in 2020. Most of the hundreds of activists and journalists arrested in 2020 under the guise of anti-terrorism laws draconian still languish. behind bars, refusal of bail. However, the biggest looming disaster looming for India this year is likely to be economic. India has been the Asian economy most affected by Covid-19, pushing the country into its first recession. Almost 50% of the country has reported a drop in income and it is estimated that up to 400 million people could fall back into poverty.

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Russia: opposition freeze: this year, a stalemate will oppose Vladimir Putin and opposition leader Alexei Navalny, as the government seeks to prevent Navalny from entering the country by threatening him with several years in prison he was coming back. Navalny has been in Europe since August after being poisoned by the Russian security service FSB. Putin is likely to want to punish Navalny for embarrassing disclosures about the FSB squad, including a taped confirmation from one of the agents obtained by Navalny himself. In the dying days of 2020, the Russian commission of inquiry accused the opposition politician of fraud, effectively giving him the choice to remain in exile or return to prison time. Online investigations have been one of the few loopholes in Putin's control over domestic politics in Russia. Investigative reports from Proekt, a new online outlet, suggested that Putin had a secret child with a lover and was working secretly from Sochi in a room built to look like his Moscow office. Another outlet, iStories, claimed that Putin's former son-in-law bought shares worth $ 380 million for just $ 100 shortly after marrying Putin's daughter. Now the government is targeting these kinds of stories and the journalists behind them. At the end of December, the Duma quickly passed new laws that would allow regulators to block YouTube and other foreign social media and punish media outlets that made "slanderous" comments, including charges of major crimes like hijacking funds. The effects of global climate change have taken their toll on Russian Siberia. and arctic regions last year, as rising temperatures sparked forest fires, caused crop failures and even played a role in the largest diesel spill in arctic history. Temperatures are rising faster in these regions than elsewhere on Earth, and the potential for tragedy is clear. In June, the remote city of Verkhoyansk recorded temperatures of 38 ° C, the highest on record in the Arctic Circle. Sea ice failed to reform until the end of the year in the Laptev Sea, where scientists believe frozen methane deposits are being released, which could accelerate warming. In the same year, sea transport via the Russian Northern Sea Route, which reduced travel between Northern Europe and Asia by several weeks, reached record levels due to the lack of ice. The impact of climate change on this delicate region is no longer distant: it has become an urgent problem for Moscow and millions of Russians.

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Australia: feel the heat: Australia has a split personality, selling itself as a land of beaches, coral reefs and eccentric marsupials while driving its main export industries of coal, liquid natural gas and iron ore . But this cognitive dissonance is starting to show itself. In 2021, Australia will have China and the climate crisis in mind. The country will need to reassess diplomatic ties with its largest trading partner, Beijing, which has banned or imposed tariffs on exports, including coal, barley, wine, timber, beef and seafood. About 40% of Australia's foreign trade is with China. Tensions have grown stronger as Australia blocked several trade deals with China and angered Beijing with a new defense pact with Japan. Prime Minister Scott Morrison's call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, whether reasonable or not, has further worsened relations. But what to do with coal? Australia sold A $ 13.7 billion (£ 7.7 billion) to China in 2019, but Beijing is now saying no. Global investors are also saying no to climate-warming fossil fuel. Communities and wildlife are still recovering from the late 2019 and early 2020 wildfires that roared after the hottest and driest year on record in the country. Australia will come under new pressure nationally and internationally to put in place effective climate policies, particularly a mid-century net zero emissions target that the Conservative-Liberal coalition government has so far resisted. Without clear signs of ambition, Australia risks building a reputation as a fossil fuel exporter and international climate change pariah at the Glasgow climate talks.

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Kabul attack in Afghanistan: For weeks, the Taliban have been heading towards the city of Mazar-i-Sharif, the largest city in northern Afghanistan. With the captures of Herat and Kandahar last week, Mazar, Jalalabad and Kabul remain the only major cities still under government control as the Taliban draw closer to the capital itself. For residents of Mazar, however, fear came to a head when the Taliban launched attacks on Dehdadi district late last week. Just 11 km (seven miles) from Mazar, the district is also home to Shaheen's 209th Corps, a force of 30,000 men destined to protect 114 districts in 10 provinces. of the economic and cultural centers of Afghanistan. Abdul Wahab was on a business trip from Kabul when the news broke. He was immediately told to leave his well-kept $ 77 a night hotel and stay with friends. "The rich and the powerful are going there, of course they will be targeted," his friends urged. friends and then realized he had to return home to Kabul, in case the airport closed. Before its fall, the airport in the western city of Herat was closed for several days as fighting reached the road to it. The next morning, thousands more had the same idea. Not only did the price of one-way tickets double to $ 150, there were no tickets for several days. Fortunately Wahab had friends at a travel agency and was able to secure a ticket. Before he could get to the airport, he ran into another obstacle, finding money to pay for the flight. "The ATMs were out of money, the banks were full of hundreds of people queuing to try and withdraw as much money as possible," Wahab said after returning to Kabul. Again, he had to turn to friends to borrow money for the ticket until he could reach the capital. When he arrived at Maulana Jalaluddin Balkhi International Airport, it became evident that having a ticket was no guarantee of being able to board a plane. He and others attempting to take to the skies in the height of the panic described an overcrowded airport, teeming with hundreds of people at every stop, from entry to security checks to check-in counters and the airport terminal. departures.

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Although flights from Mazar have now resumed normally, other cities have not been so fortunate. Over the past week, flights to and from Herat and Kandahar, both of which fell to the Taliban late last week, were canceled. A Kandahar-based journalist, who fears the Taliban will target him for working with foreign media, said he was just waiting for a flight to Kabul. " If we can just get to Kabul, we can figure things out," he told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity. In order to prevent the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul from suffering the same fate, the United States and the United Kingdom have announced that they will send up to 3,600 troops to secure the airport and allow the evacuation. of the civilian populations of their nations. .

But with the Taliban moving closer to Kabul day by day, that is little assurance for people who fear the days to come. Travel agencies in the capital are overrun with anxious people who try to leave the country and avoid the possibility of living under the Taliban again. Tickets to Dubai and Istanbul, two of the most common international destinations for Afghan travelers, have also skyrocketed. Economy class tickets to Istanbul, which typically range between $ 400 and $ 800, currently sell for $ 1,400 to $ 2,300 online. For Dubai, prices have risen from $ 300 to $ 400 in the previous months to between $ 800 and $ 1,156. International travel also presents the added hurdle of trying to get a visa in an Afghan passport at a time when thousands of people are constantly asking for them. "Everyone in the office was on the phone all day with a travel agent, embassy or commission employee, trying to get tickets and visas," a finance ministry employee said. The frenzy of moving from one city to another, or if one is lucky from another country, was best described by a police officer at Mazar airport, who Ava heard said. : "All the inhabitants of Mazar have fled, no one will stay. What will become of us, those who cannot afford a ticket? God have mercy on us.