Ever had that feeling after taking an exam when you're waiting for the results; you're confident that you've nailed the exam but during the waiting period, your confidence starts to erode a little bit everyday.
Well that was what happened to me after I returned to Baghdad from meeting with Ambassador Dickman.
I'm sure they'll call. It's a great for deal.
They'll call.
What if someone else offered them a better deal?
Fuck…Kuwait could love offered a better deal. Or the Saudis…damn they love those barbaric bastards anyway.
Shit, what do I do if they don't call ?
I don't have a plan B. Call the Soviets? Do they even have money?
The Americans called on Day 3 and informed my people that a three member delegation would be headed over to Baghdad to meet me. Phew.
I met the delegation in my office in the Presidential Palace. The three were arrayed in front of me in increasing order of devious ness..
Firstly, Dickman who loomed over me but shook my hand firmly and gave me a bright smile. I must have left an impression.
"Your Excellency may I introduce Deputy Secretary Hayes and Mr. Shaw both from the State Department," Dickman said indicating the woman next to him and the man next to her.
The lady, Hayes, was a short, auburn - haired woman with a pinched face displaying a thin, curt smile.
"Ms. Hayes," I greeted her, shaking her cold bony hand.
I then shook hands with Shaw, who was giving me a toothy grin. His whole demeanour screamed 'Mukhbarat' to the Saddam inside me.
He tried to end our handshake but I pulled him closer much to everyone's shock.
"Mr. Hayes or Bond or whatever your real name is. Please don't take this deal as an invitation for the CIA to meddle in the internal affairs. of Iraq. You would be putting America's energy security for the next decade in jeopardy."
There was shocked silence following my statement; except for Dickman spluttering nonsensically. Shaw continued to look shocked but gave me a discreet nod. Nailed it.
We sat down and I waited for America's opening salvo.
It was Hayes who began, as I had expected. When you need real work done, send in a woman. They don't bullshit.
"Your Excellency, the offer you tabled to Ambassador Dickman was very interesting to us. I think with a bit of work on the price we could have a very favourable deal for both parties."
I didn't say a word, I just stared coldly at her. The minutes ticked by and the American delegation began looking at each other in consternation.
"Err... Your..." Dickman began but I interrupted him.
"You know what they call a person who rejects a fabulous gift and asks for a bigger gift, in Iraq?" I asked Hayes.
It was clearly a rhetorical question so no one moved or spoke.
"The village idiot," I finished viciously.
I got up from my seat and the Americans also rose in confusion.
"The purpose of this meeting is not to annoy me into retracting this incredible deal for America. It is for me to tell you my other demands and for us to work out the practicalities of the deal."
The Americans looked downcast, well at least Dickman did, so I softened my tone, "My agenda is not for you to lose your careers over this. So how about this: you spend the rest of the day, reframing your approach to this meeting. My suggestion would be to imagine you are dealing with a well-informed white, Western ruler. And then we can try again tomorrow."
I grinned inwardly as the shocked Americans left my office.
The next day, the Americans were again sat in front of me. Hayes had undergone a sea change in her attitude. Gone was the prim, uptight middle-manager and in her place was a smiling, informal charmer.
"Your Excellency, I want to start by apologizing for yesterday. My intention was not to insult you or jeopardize this deal. We are most grateful for the opportunity."
I smiled magnanimously and waved off her apology, "No apologies needed Ma'am. Nothing ventured nothing gained and all that."
I had hoped that this new understanding between the Americans and myself would make the whole process much smoother but we hit an obstacle almost immediately in the day's discussions. It was over the issue of my demand for an upfront payment.
"Your Excellency, on the issue of the upfront payment…I want you to understand that we wish to work with you on this, but as you no doubt know we simply do not have a way to pay this Iraq upfront. The rough estimate for this deal is 140 billion dollars. That cash just isn't available to us," said Hayes taking care to sound as polite and equanimous as possible.
"146 billion dollars," I replied to her. She cocked an eyebrow but accepted my correction. I wasn't going to let them gyp me out of 6 billion dollars.
"Ms. Hayes, I of course am aware that transactions of this nature are not done by simply wiring money into a bank account. I will need a small fraction of that amount to sit in various Iraqi bank accounts across the world so that I had ready funds to invest in my plans. I will need an even smaller amount in paper currency. But for the vast majority of it, I am willing to accept US Treasury Bonds of equivalent nominal value."
Except for Shaw who remained placid, the Americans looked even more troubled.
"Your Excellency, I don't follow," began Hayes, "I don't think there are enough T-Bonds floating around the secondary market for us to sweep them into your account."
I smiled at Hayes, "Of course not Madam. The US Government will issue fresh 10 year T-Bonds to Iraq."
Hayes looked rebellious and her face morphed into the angry one of the previous day. I could see her visibly controlling her outrage, "Your Excellency, the gross national debt of America is around 900 billion dollars. Fresh issuance of 140 billion dollars of debt would be a sudden increase of over 10% of our national debt. The impact on inflation and the financial markets would be tremendous!"
I wagged a finger at her, "Madam please don't forget that it is over 146 billion dollars that will be owed to Iraq. You keep forgetting the 6 billion dollars and it makes me very jittery."
I waited for her to grudgingly concede the point with a nod. I was being petty on purpose. I didn't want her to forget that I was doing America a favour.
"And I believe you are mistaken about the market volatility and inflation. At ten dollars a barrel of oil, which is five dollars less than the prevailing market price and taking into account the 4 million barrels per day that Iraq will supply, America will immediately reduce its annual expenditure by over 7 billion dollars. The additional interest you will pay on the new bonds will be 13 billion dollars."
Hayes nodded at my calculations and splayed her hands and widened her eyes as if to indicate that I had proved her point. Dickson looked lost. Shaw looked unmoved.
"Allow me to finish, this calculation is based on current oil prices. As you know, the price of oil has already risen 30% this year and from your own analysts' expectations the price could go anywhere from 30 dollars to 50 dollars a barrel. And there's no telling how long the elevated prices would last. So you could potentially end up saving significantly."
I paused for effect.
"This is also not to mention the intangible benefits. By having almost a fifth of your oil supplied at a stable, low price you would be in a much better position to stand your ground against OPEC. In fact you might even see a bidding war between OPEC countries to not lose your business."
Hayes looked thoughtful now.
"And lastly, as you well know," I continued, using her phrasing, "it's much easier to control inflation caused by your domestic money supply than it is to control imported inflation."
The American delegation processed my words as I watched them like a hawk. Surprisingly it was Dickman who spoke next.
"Your Excellency, you mentioned that you will need some of the amount in paper currency. I wonder why that would be the case?"
I smiled pedantically at him, "Ambassador, let's just say that I want the Iraqi engine of commerce to start moving at a faster pace than before. To make that happen I'll have to grease certain cogs in the engine lest they overheat and create problems for me in the future."
Dickman looked perplexed and looked from me to his comrades. Bless this sincere, honest man's heart.
"Mr. Shaw might I prevail on you to explain what I mean to the Ambassador at a later time. It would be vulgar of me to lay it out during this meeting," I smiled and said to the CIA man. He grinned at me and nodded mouthing 'sure.'
"Your Excellency, I take your point on the benefits of the deal with regards to T-Bond issuances," said Hayes coming out of her reverie, "but may I suggest that we reimburse you also partially in the form of perhaps goods or services?"
"Such as what Madam?" I was honestly curious.
She shrugged, "Well I'm not privy to your long-term plans but for example we can provide construction and infrastructure aid or perhaps meet some requirements for Iraq's security needs."
Aah, the Americans were offering me the goodies from the military-industrial complex.
I shook my head, "Madam, I have no need of military hardware as we'll soon discuss. War is a fool's errand, it's bad for business and bad for development. As for construction services, I am a big believer in the free market as America itself has promoted. I would rather hire the best firm in the market than avail of a pre-paid service which will undoubtedly be of worse quality since the money has already been paid."
She looked affronted, "I assure you, that American services are top-notch and world-beating."
"I did not mean to insult Madam and I agree that America is great. But it is human nature not to put in as much effort when the money has already been received. It is much better to dangle the carrot as you might say."
There was a lull in conversation again and I went in for the kill, "I'm afraid I will have to put my foot down on this matter. I believe I have explained all sides rationally and upfront money is the biggest benefit for Iraq from this deal."
What else could they do but agree?
We moved on and I felt relieved, there was only one big obstacle remaining. It was truly the big one and I would have to approach it tactfully.
We sorted out the small details and niggles. In the middle I indulged them with dates and luxurious food and coffee. It was night time when the Americans sat back in their chairs looking exhausted but triumphant. They thought they'd achieved a groundbreaking deal and the whole work was done.
"I am very pleased with the way these negotiations have proceeded. Kudos to you," I said with fake warmth.
They offered me wan but pleased smiles in return.
"By the way, a small curiosity if you'll indulge me…how do you plan to secure and transport the oil that we will pump for you?"
Hayes and Dickman looked at each other in confusion.
"Well I assumed that you would be arranging transport by sea of course," said Hayes carefully. Her brain was waking back up as she recognized that we were not yet done.
I scoffed, "Madam at the price I'm selling you oil I am not also going to take the headache of transporting the oil. The price I'm selling my oil to you is Ex-Works, only the price for the extraction and product. Nothing else."
Dickman looked mystified and surprisingly Shaw did as well. I liked to think that at this point Shaw sensed that his role in the negotiations was coming into play. Hayes looked disgruntled but nodded, "We can work with that."
"Excellent!" I said jovially. "But my question still stands, how do you plan to secure and transport the oil?"
"Well, we'll contract some shipping company to transport the oil I suppose," said Hayes carefully.
I scoffed again, "Madam as you are all aware I'm sure, there has been a change in the regime of my neighbours to the East."
They looked alert now, especially Shaw.
"Most of the oil I will be supplying you is from the Rumaila oil field near the Kuwaiti border and near Basra in the South. As Mr. Shaw would certainly know, that is not only close to Iran but also a Shia majority area."
I had their undivided attention.
"Moreover, the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose Supreme Leader has termed your country 'the Great Satan' control entirely one side of the Gulf of Hormuz, the only sea route available from Iraq. So again…how do you plan to secure the oil?"
They were silent, just watching me dumbfounded. Am I a good orator? I don't know. I waited patiently for them to speak. Minutes ticked by.
"I, of course, shouldn't care beyond pumping the oil. But I want good business ties with America so I think it's important we dot the 'I's as you say."
"Do you have any recommendations on this issue Your Excellency," Dickman said carefully. Yay, the war vet was finally standing up.
"A few," I said humbly nodding. "The Gulf of Hormuz will be easy to control. America already has Aircraft Carrier groups in the Indian Ocean. You simply move that group to the opening of the Gulf. Your allies amongst the Gulf nations would thank you and Iran will curse you but they're already doing that so it doesn't matter."
They all nodded at that. Good. Now the hard part.
"The problem is securing the oil on the ground."
Hayes laughed incredulously, "Surely that is your job Your Excellency. How do you expect America to secure Iraqi oil in Iraqi territory?"
I gave her a cold hard stare, "Madam. As Mr. Shaw will be able to educate you. The Iraqi army is a small one, comprised mainly of my own community – the Sunni Arabs. We are a minority in this country. I also cannot have Kurds and Shias in my army lest they turn on us during a critical operation."
They looked cowed.
"So, I am stuck between two hard choices. I either send this small army of mine, North to secure the oilfields in the Kurdish area or the South in the Shia area. Both of those communities by the way have been given subtle support by the CIA in the hopes that they will overthrow me."
I said the last bit while giving Shaw an angry glare. He had the decency to look ashamed. Slightly.
"I don't need to tell you that should any other party come to power in Iraq, your incredible oil deal will be immediately cancelled as the benefit for Iraq is only evident to me."
I paused for them to process my words.
"But Sir, what is the solution then?" asked Dickman.
"There are no good solutions Ambassador," I said as kindly as I could. "But I have what I believe is the best of many bad options."
"Please go on," he replied politely.
"I am willing to take the risk of having a small American military base in southern Iraq for the duration of this deal and any subsequent deals we may enact."
This was it. The big one. My heart was thudding as I watched my announcement sink into their minds. Shaw looked thoughtful, Hayes incredulous and Dickman confused.
"You realize what that would mean?" asked Shaw. He had a surprisingly deep voice for someone who looked like an overgrown child.
I nodded, "The risk to me personally would be great, but I believe if we proceed according to my plans then we will emerge safely."
"I don't follow," said Dickman, "what risks?"
"American troops on the ground in the Middle East?" said Shaw. "His Excellency will be resented by everyone even the Sunni Arabs. Nobody wants us here."
"How do you plan to alleviate the risk?" asked Hayes.
"The base will be a small one in southern Iraq," I began to explain. "It needs to be on the Iraqi side not the Kuwaiti side so it's evident that America is there to secure its oil. The base will be small but can be restocked and supplied from the nearby Aircraft Carrier group. The base can't be anywhere near an existing settlement or it will arouse the ire of the locals. American troops will not be allowed jaunts into Iraqi cities as they are in Korea or Japan. A drunk American soldier would inflame tensions like nothing else."
Shaw and Hayes nodded.
"I will hopefully be able to provide financial support and employment countrywide quickly to forestall large protests. American presence in sea and on land will also quell any troublemaking that the Ayatollah is planning. I can then send the Iraqi army north to secure the Kurdish area and especially the Kirkuk oil fields."
And there it was. My plan laid out for them as tactfully as possible.
"We'll need to run this by Washington," said Shaw seriously. This was his baby now. Hayes and Dickman were out of their depths.
I gave my assent and reclined on my chair. I was exhausted. It was out of my hands now.