There was no way to sugarcoat things , once the tier 3 and tier 4 forces joined the fray the elites were forced on the backfoot.
Rudra knew that the elites forces lacked quality compared to the enemy , however he did not understand the severity of the situation until he faced it firsthand.
The tier 3 forces on the side of the blood merchants tore through the Elite ranks like they were made of paper , and even with the golems tanking a lot of damage and giving the elites a fighting chance , it was clear that the momentum was with the enemy forces.
This was the exact reason why Rudra only kept the winning possibility at a whopping low of 30% as he understood that not only were the elites outnumbered , they were outclassed as well.
If the roles were reversed , if the blood merchants only had 3 million troops and the elites had 10 million , even then the blood merchants would have a 30% chance of victory because their troops were of a higher callibre.