"Over the long run, every player gets the same cards, the same good luck, the same bad luck. That's why in each situation, the genuine winner is not who wins the pot…but who plays the hand better than his opponent would have if the roles were reversed."
——————
10 competitors sat at the table, but 8 of them may as well have been furniture. Joey and Richard possessed the big stacks, leading the other players by a wide margin.
Early on, Joey and Richard avoided each other. They knew their showdown was inevitable, but there was no reason to fight now. It was better to secure 1st and 2nd place before dueling for the gold. This became the tragedy of the other players.
Survival was the name of the game for these underdogs, but the real world differed from the movies. In reality, most underdogs got crushed.
One by one, the shortstacks were flattened.
Joey and Richard were like two great empires, conquering all the nearby small nations to gather resources before the final great war. For those tiny countries, there could be no good end. Poker tournaments didn't have an option to surrender, and Joey and Richard weren't the merciful type. Their outcome could only be one—annihilation, of their countries and complete bloodlines. Like this, the land was torn apart by war, covered in crying orphans and broken armor. Blood soaked the earth.
After many years of war and slaughter, the fated time for unification of the continent loomed near. Only two empires remained; Joey and Richard were heads-up!
Once they eliminated the small fries, the two empires' mammoth armies stood at the border, their weapons itching to taste flesh. The two great generals rode out into the middle of the battlefield. They needed to look into the eyes of their destined rival, to exchange greeting…and potential farewell.
Despite their hostile positions, there was mutual respect. For a true warrior, there was no greater fortune than meeting a worthy adversary. After a moment of silence, Richard fired the first arrow.
"You know...it won't go the same as last time," Richard said.
Joey smiled. "We'll see..."
They didn't play a single hand yet, but the battle already began. Psychological warfare ensued. Richard hadn't said those words for no reason; He was trying to shake Joey's confidence. In poker, the lack of confidence created anxiety, and anxiety created tells. Joey wasn't the only one with the ability to read body language. As they faced off, the two analyzed each other's condition, looking for physical tells or any available weakness.
Things would be different this time. Joey knew it. In the last match between them, he held a tremendous advantage. He had the benefit of informational asymmetry. That's when one opponent had much more information than the other. Back then, Joey had a good idea of how Richard played, but Richard didn't know Joey. That's why Joey was able to bait him with a donk bet, setting up an all-in. Now? That edge disappeared.
Richard had plenty of time to analyze the hand already. It allowed him to grasp a rough idea of how Joey played. He evaluated Joey as a thoughtful, tricky, and very strong player! It was an accurate assessment! Without the prior advantage, they now stood on even ground. Would Joey still be able to win?
Richard believed Joey was very good, but that he was even better! Joey was too young. It was impossible for him to possess anything close to Richard's experience.
Joey would agree he lacked experience, but he also knew the previous edge was one he built himself through careful observation. He trusted in his empath ability. That was his unmatchable superiority!
After the two probed each other with mind and mouth, the moment came to change words for sword.
The two generals rode back to their armies. A short time after, the battlefield's horn resounded. Their soldiers began to consume each other!
The dealer slid out 2 cards to each of them. Both sat on sizeable stacks, giving them enough room to maneuver for a while, which meant this wouldn't be a quick match. Nor would it be a boring one.
Heads-up play was an action game. Different from a ring game or even shorthanded, heads-up play contained by far the highest percentage of hands played, well beyond 15% or 35%. In fact, Joey and Richard played most of their hands!
This was a characteristic of poker. As the number of players decreased, the percentage of ideal hands to play increased, and with only two players, it reached an extreme. The reason was simple.
Most of the time in heads-up, the opponent has trash or marginal hands. So if you're on the button and you know your opponent's range is weak, it becomes profitable to raise many trash hands because you have the positional advantage.
Heads-up, position often becomes the deciding factor in who wins the hand. It's a major advantage, the high ground. Since each player has the button 50% of the time, it creates a scenario with constant raising.
Once the button raises, if the big blind knows he will raise trash, then he'll widen his defending range by calling more. This creates a scenario with constant defending.
In the end, both players continue to the flop with a very large percentage of hands.
Joey and Richard felt each other out, testing for weaknesses. These initial hands were the skirmishes.
The two great generals sent out their light horsemen and archers to probe the enemy's defenses, looking for gaps in their line.
*Fwoosh*
Arrows filled the sky!
*Clip-clop* *Clip-clop* *Neigh!*
Horsemen threatened the flanks!
The battlefield's clean air became polluted with its first stench of blood!
...
After disengaging, both generals observed that the casualties were minor. Both sides failed to discover a point of breakthrough, making them understand this wouldn't be an easy battle. Both generals had wily minds that wouldn't make basic errors. It would be a long and grueling war…
After a long period of adjustment, the face of one of the great generals became stern. He raised his arm, giving the signal to send out his central army. Legions moved into formation...and attacked!
Screams of charging warriors swallowed the battlefield! The clash of swords rang out! Severed limbs flew into the sky!
The first major battle erupted!
Richard raised on the button preflop with [9♠ 6♠], a weak hand, but an acceptable one to raise heads-up.
Joey defended with [J♦ 9♥].
The flop came [9♦ 5♣ 3♦]. Both of them flopped a somewhat strong hand—top pair. To be specific, it was strong for heads-up.
Just like how you needed to play tighter preflop with more players behind, this concept applied postflop as well. The more people that saw a flop, the higher the chance someone smashed it to make a nutty hand. With four or more players to a flop, top pair might not be much on a fairly wet board like this. You would often fold it for significant action. But with two players, it was a good hand.
This was even more true in a heads-up match where their preflop ranges were much weaker than usual. More garbage hands in a preflop range made it tougher to make powerful hands postflop. So on average, heads-up players would have weaker hands all around.
In this hand, they both hit well, but Richard was in trouble!
He was outkicked! Joey had the higher kicker, a situation that could prove very costly for Richard. It was unlucky for him. Still, neither of them knew it so they played their hands to their best ability.
Joey checked and Richard c-bet 2/3 of the pot.
Joey liked his cards, but it was a wet flop so he worried about draws. That's why he opted to make a medium-sized check/raise to put pressure on him.
Richard had top pair and wasn't ready to fold to the check/raise. There were many draws Joey could be semi-bluffing with. However, his hand wasn't that strong so he preferred to only call, which is what he did.
The turn came [9♦ 5♣ 3♦ K♥]. Joey now had the action.
This was a card that neither player loved or hated. It was a better card for Richard, but it wasn't scary enough that Joey would give up his lead. Joey felt he probably still held the best hand. So he didn't want to let Richard see a free river card. Thus, he bet the turn for 2/3 of the pot.
Richard contemplated how to proceed…
Since none of the draws came out, he wasn't considering folding. There were still too many hands Joey could have that top pair was beating. His only fear was that Joey would make a large bet again on the river. If he called that and lost, it would take out most of his stack. That would be a disaster!
Another terrible situation would be if a river card came a diamond and Joey bet big again. Richard would have to fold even though Joey could still be bluffing in that spot with missed straight draws.
Most players in Richard's spot would only consider calling or folding here, but as a veteran, he discovered an even better play—an unusual and aggressive strategy!
A turn diamond, 4 or 6 would've been poor cards for him, but this king wasn't bad. In fact, he saw a possibility to turn it into a good card, because the king hit his range better than Joey's. Richard came up with a plan…
"I raise…" Richard put out some chips. After the dealer counted it…the raise doubled Joey's bet, the minimum raise.
Joey narrowed his eyes. 'This raise is weird...A minimum raise is too weird…'
He could call it a tiny raise, so was it weak? He could also say it gave him the option to reraise, which would build the pot if he wanted, so was it strong? Joey didn't understand.
A player at Richard's level could've been making himself look weak in order to bait Joey to semi-bluff reraise. This min-raise confused Joey, making him hesitate…
In addition, the biggest problem wasn't the raise but the following implication.
Joey's hand seemed good on the flop, but if Richard paired that king…his j9 would be drawing very thin to win. If Richard value bet big on the river, then Joey called and lost, he would lose most of his stack! It would be a disaster!
The roles reversed! This was the same situation Richard faced on the flop!
Like an Aikido throw, Richard used Joey's aggression against him to reverse the pressure!
'What do I do? Call? Fold?' Joey's face remained stoic, but he struggled in his mind. He was in a tough spot!